Big Blue Still Stuck in the Blue Grotto

With rumors of Carl Icahn being involved in IBM dispelled this afternoon, "Big Blue" is still mired in a technically-damged chart. The daily timeframe, below, shows price fading today back below its 20-day simple moving average, a source of resistance since the stocks's earnings gap lower last month. Should IBM loses $160, I view this as an actionable short setup to play for a move down to $130 in the coming months. Also recall how may value investors are trapped in the name from around $200--I doubt we have seen capitulation on that front. I would expect some type of temporary relief bounce to ensue with a move over $167. For now, though, as you can see with the light blue lines, Big Blue remains stuck in its own Blue Grotto.