Well Hello My Name is Simon, and I Like to Give Clues About Rates

Another trade which may be setting up is to go short Treasuries. To my eye, the rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks, or REITs, will be a good clue as to whether that trade comes to fruition.

On the daily chart for the IYR, sector ETF for the REITs, note how price has made a series of lower highs but higher lows (light blue lines) since late-January. That is quite some time to go with no clear trend. 

Price now looks to be barely hanging onto the lower support trendline. If the REITs break lower from here that would probably give me enough evidence to go ahead and either short the REITs themselves, bonds via long TBT or long TMV bearish ETFs, and perhaps short utilities too, another rate-sensitive sector.

Also note that Simon Property Group, SPG, is the top holding in the iYR ETF.  So I am also watching SPG for clues here.