12Sep1:32 pmEST

An EZ Tell on Gold

From a trading standpoint, the Apple event taking place as we speak is not much of a concern to me, either way, beyond keeping tabs on a few supplies like QRVO and SWKS. 

Form my vantage point, markets are grinding up to burn recent hedges to the ground, in terms of the VIX and TLT, even gold.

On that note, the issue is whether gold was simply a rush to fear in recent weeks, or something more. We have discussed in recent blog posts the possibility for a new gold bull market. 

Ultimately, gold bugs will need to prove they can step in and take the heat in the face of pullbacks, which we know can be ferocious in all things commodities and miners (even during bull runs). Thus far today, we have a mixed and quiet session regarding precious metals and miners.

But from a broader perspective, beyond one or two days, consider EZCORP, below on the daily chart, as an intriguing "tell" on the precious complex without being a miner itself.

EZCORP owns pawn shops throughout the U.S. and Mexico. More importantly for us, if you backtest the chart going back over the last few cycles for gold and her miners, you will see a fairly close correlation. 

Currently, EZPW is breaking back over its 200-day moving average for the first time a good while. If this move holds and builds on itself throughout the autumn months it could easily bode well for the notion that the recent move in gold is something beyond a mere multi-week fear trade amid swirling headlines. 

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