Trading Ideas
Showing articles 161 - 180 (5330 total)
17Aug1:26 pmEST
Consider Where the Real Pain Is
Just take a step back and consider, objectively, how many seasoned Wall Street veterans are bullish on bonds for any number of reasons. First and foremost, there are those who believe an imminent credit event is upon us, and therefore there will be a scramble into Treasuries as The Fed inevitably cuts rates to cope with the crisis. Others see...
16Aug11:49 amEST
We've Got Ourselves Some Twin Peaks
The much ballyhooed "July breakout" in stocks saw one of the most ostentatious displays of arrogance, hubris, and outright obnoxious behavior I can recall from bulls since early-2021. But even back then, early-2021 was much more about pressing for one more good "YOLO" trade as opposed to last month where the rallying cry centered around...
15Aug11:13 amEST
Easy There on Chasing Old Warren This Time Around
Headlines are swirling with the latest disclosure from Berkshire that Buffett has bought into three homebuilders: DHI LEN and NVR. There are a few ways to look at these new bets, with perhaps them being hedges for the home remodeling businesses already owns which have been slowing date of late. After all, if new supply of homes is the issue,...
13Aug10:46 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/13/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
11Aug1:20 pmEST
I Feel Sorry for Your Thesis
A clip of Jerome Powell giving testimony on Capitol Hill has been making the rounds on Twitter of late. In the clip, he responds to a, "why does The Fed have a 2% inflation target, anyway?" question unimpressively, to say the least. If nothing else, it drives home the point about just how clueless these Central Bankers truly are and how...
10Aug1:24 pmEST
Summer Always Turns Into Hurricane Season
We live in a lower trust society nowadays, and perhaps that means a lower trust market, too. In fact, I am quite sure that is the case, where every bit of data, such as this morning's CPI print, and every market machination is met with a skeptical eye of conspiracy by a not-insignificant group of market players and pundits. Such is life,...
09Aug11:28 amEST
I Wasn't Joking About the South Sea Bubble
I have been doing this for a long time now; Writing about markets in full public view on a daily basis for nearly fifteen years. So when I pen a piece like I did here on July 31st of this year, comparing the long-term parabolic charts of AAPL NVDA to the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law and the Mississippi Stock Bubble, and...
08Aug11:07 amEST
We're Moving to a Higher Plane
Dare I say, the era of low volatility is over. With volatility sellers as cocky as I have ever seen them, to dovetail mega cap tech bulls, the stage is set for a nasty volatility unwind higher. To be sure, this entire process has taken much longer than I ever anticipated. However, nothing has changed the underlying picture which is why I...
07Aug2:10 pmEST
Natty Gas: Maybe the Nine Millionth Time Will Be the Charm
Anyone who has traded natural gas over the years, be it the commodity futures contract themselves or the various ETFs, knows how uniquely tricky it can be insofar as various head-fakes and traps. However, with the energy complex catching a strong bid during the middle portion of this summer, namely crude and gasoline futures, it is certainly...
06Aug10:53 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/06/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
04Aug2:28 pmEST
Fitch's Get Stitches
While it may be tempting to praise the credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, for its recent downgrade of U.S. debt as being an admirable display of courage and integrity, I am willing to bet they had plenty of other reasons for making the move, too. Fitch, of course, got publicity from it. They also cement a ton of of ye-olde "covering one's...
03Aug1:27 pmEST
Bond Bulls Have it Wrong
The sheer duration and size of the consolidation Treasuries have been operating in, since last autumn when equities bottomed, almost assuredly means that when the inevitable directional break comes from said consolidation it will take many by surprise and oftentimes be far more violent in nature than most expect--Paul Tudor Jones has famous...
01Aug2:50 pmEST
Summertime Blues for the Lag
We have High Yield Corporate and Junk Bonds (HYG, JNK ETFs, respectively) gapping down hard from a cluster of recent sideways candlesticks denoting a possible bearish reversal down. Meanwhile, both rates and the U.S. Dollar are on the move higher, with rates on the 10-Year Note suddenly coming close to that key 4.1% level we have been noting...
31Jul10:36 amEST
We All Have it Coming, Kid
AAPL and NVDA multi-year charts, first below, versus the Mississippi Stock Bubble, the Dutch Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, and RCA stock from the Roaring Twenties into the Great Depression. I recognize there are plenty of reasons circulating as to why this time is different and not a bubble. However, I can assure you with a modicum of...
30Jul11:58 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/30/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
28Jul1:01 pmEST
Relentless History
The bid in equities certainly seems relentless and is likely historic on many fronts, as we have been noting. As an example, the Bank of Japan yield curve control semi-"tweak" overnight was taken n stride, at least for now. And CNN's Fear & greed Index its till stubbornly in "Extreme Greed" territory. However, if you have been following along...
27Jul12:31 pmEST
This Will Be the Spark
Putting to one side the omnipresent "Black Swan" risks of Japan's markets imploding, the Euro Zone going bust, China/Taiwan, North Korea, and of course Russian/Ukraine, the far more imminent risk as I see it is inflation surging back higher in the face of a Fed Chair staying stubbornly methodical and hellbent on not surprising markets. But...
26Jul3:23 pmEST
Even the Price of Milquetoast is Rising
milque·toast noun: milquetoast; plural noun: milquetoasts a timid or feeble person. adjective: milquetoast feeble, insipid, or bland. "a soppy, milquetoast composer" Origin 1930s: from the name of a cartoon character, Caspar Milquetoast, created by H. T. Webster in 1924. It is hard to imagine a Fed Chair more timid in his...
25Jul11:25 amEST
Slowly But Surely, Starting to Come Together
The indices may be telling a different story for now, but sectors like the airlines (ETF below on the weekly timeframe) are indicating that inflationary pressures alongside a softening consumer are finally showing some wear and tear. As you can see on JETS, the reversal we noted a few weeks ago after Delta's earnings continues to...
24Jul12:35 pmEST
A Midsummer Central Banker's Dream (or Nightmare)
The Italians call it, "Ferragosto," which is basically a public holiday for summer vacation in August. Other cultures around the world have similar traditions, especially in Europe. Here in America, most industries keep their noses to the grindstone, or at least they did. But the wizards of Wall Street are usually out on the Hamptons, Cape Cod,...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
