MarketChess

18Dec3:42 pmEST

The Great Repricing

Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...

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17Dec2:41 pmEST

Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP

Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback.  However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...

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16Dec12:53 pmEST

Because it is All So Hysterical

In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...

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13Dec3:22 pmEST

Afternoon Update 12/13/24 {Video}

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12Dec3:10 pmEST

How Could it Be OK if It's Askew?

I saw on X that @Barchart posted how low the "MOVE" Index has been sinking, which is basically the VIX of the bond market, illustrated below.  It would seem there is much ado about nothing, according to the MOVE Index, despite rates pushing higher as Treasuries selloff after both yesterday's inline CPI print, a strong 10-Year auction, and then...

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11Dec10:13 amEST

Ready to Go At a Moment's Notice

Natural gas is red-hot this morning, out in front of the commodity complex as the CPI print confirmed what we basically knew anyway: Inflation is reaccelerating into Fed rate cuts. Further, while it is certainly true that uranium and nuclear reactor plays are enticing on the long side, the more imminent, realistic play for AI energy is natural...

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09Dec1:55 pmEST

They Couldn't Break the Chiner

We have what looks to be some late-stage bifurcation rotation again today, with the downtrodden China stocks getting a secondary boost off recent lows after their early-October pop. On the first chart, below, of the weekly timeframe for the FXI China country ETF, we can see the bull flag potential uncoiling higher today, with names like BABA JD...

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06Dec3:38 pmEST

Afternoon Update 12/06/24 {Video}

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05Dec3:39 pmEST

Bull Market Don't Die of Old Age

The old Wall Street is adage is that bull markets, "do not die of old age," meaning it is impossible to put an expiration date on a bull run merely because it has already rallied for many years.  That said, bull markets most certainly do die when the final marginal buyer has been exhausted and the market is essentially all "bought up" with...

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04Dec3:10 pmEST

Political Trades Require Cunning Instincts

One phenomenon I have noticed over the decades with each incoming Presidential Administration has been the temptation to find the new President trade. With Obama, it was green energy, for example.  But those trades rarely have staying power. In fact, the opposite usually happens, with sectors you expect to lead, lagging, and sectors you expect...

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