MarketChess

30Sep3:11 pmEST

You Cannot Fool All of the Markets, All of the Time

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” -Abraham Lincoln  Within the hour we will finally have that explosive candlestick for rates on the 10-Year Note officially in the books, as the third quarter of trading ends today.  On the updated TNX...

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29Sep2:57 pmEST

Golden Top Arches

While the rally in shares of Carnival Cruise Lines is popping today after earnings, that chart remains broken and the gap looks to be nothing more than a retest of the prior $25/$26 breakdown level. Instead, I maintain that the likes of Costco, Walmart, and McDonald's are far better tests for the health (or lack thereof) of 80-90% of the...

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28Sep2:02 pmEST

The Writing on the Wall

Just because we know the daily rumor mill will keep heavily churning indefinitely does not make this type of market regime any less exhausting and tedious to trade on a daily basis. It certainly seems as though the White House does not feel it can afford to take one single trading day off from sweating the tape to focus on other issues, as we...

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25Sep3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/25/26 {Video}

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24Sep2:20 pmEST

Make Me Beautiful, Natural Gas

Natural gas had quietly been on fire this week. In particular, given the focus elsewhere on rates, crude, diesel, and just about every other typical distraction in this cycle from Washington, AI, Iran, and the like, it is quite easy to see how even a ferocious move like this in natty could be overlooked or even outright ignored as irrelevant....

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23Sep3:37 pmEST

I Didn't Put Nothin' Up!

As one of our astute Members, Stu, noted several times of late, gasoline could easily be leading crude higher here, even with tons of focus from the White House on diesel all of a sudden.  And that gasoline leadership sure seems to be the case today, with the UGA ETF (for rolling gasoline prices nationwide), below on the daily chart, pushes to...

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22Sep3:24 pmEST

Again

Despite a Fed rate hike last week, not to mention another one in play by the end of this calendar year, it is quite clear that we have a White House not only hell-bent on downplaying inflation but also outright flaming the fire to run it hotter than ever.  As we have noted before, here and with Members, gold often flourishes in a scenario where...

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21Sep3:08 pmEST

Houthis Don't Surf!

As we have noted since March, it is virtually impossible to successfully fight to win a war while also sweating every single tick across several markets. The latest version of this theory was put into praxis again this weekend, as President Trump reversed his own decision a few times regarding whether to help the Saudis fight the Houthis via...

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18Sep2:28 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/18/26 {Video}

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17Sep3:12 pmEST

Chopped

As difficult as it is to believe and trade through on a daily basis, the Nasdaq has indeed gone entirely sideways for more than four months at this point, as illustrated by the Nasdaq-100 Index weekly chart, below.  The bullish interpretation of this action is that we have corrected "through time," rather than through price, and that an...

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