MarketChess

Showing articles 1 - 10 (5865 total)

06Jul10:12 amEST

Working with a Thin Margin of Error

Biotechs are still mostly working into a mixed tape this morning, as the market likely awaits the Fed Minutes at 2pm EST to gain insight into The Fed's thinking about looming rate hikes and the pace of them.  ARQT and IONS, respectively below on their updated daily timeframes, are two high quality charts we have been tracking closely with...

05Jul3:45 pmEST

Got My Toes in the Water, Corny Country Music in the Sand

Although I cannot claim Zac Brown Band is my type of country music (check out Colt Ford [below] or Danny Boone instead), I do indeed also have some toes in the water now just like one of their top songs. With the rally in growth stocks holding deep into the afternoon, it appears that the crush in oil may be enough until the middle of the month...

05Jul10:52 amEST

Lots of Horsemen Out There

Despite a sizable thrust down on the indices at the open we now have a situation with glaring relative strength for those paying attention, as we strive to do with Members consistently through all types of markets.  Thus, although this market is far from what I would describe as healthy and thriving all the way around for bulls, seeing the...

03Jul1:24 pmEST

The Panic of 1907

The Panic of 1907 was a six-week stretch of runs on banks in New York City and other American cities in October and early November of 1907. It was triggered by a failed speculation that caused the bankruptcy of two brokerage firms. But the shock that set in motion the events to create the Panic was the earthquake in San Francisco in 1906. The...

02Jul12:55 pmEST

Van Tharp on Position Sizing

via YouTube: Size really does matter in the markets! Position Sizing (a term coined by trading coach Van Tharp), tells you how much to risk on any particular trade. It is one of the most important concepts that any trader should know. Van Tharp has also written The Definitive to Position Sizing Strategies, a desk reference for serious traders.

01Jul12:28 pmEST

To Short or Not to Short?

By now it may not be a reach to declare the bullish seasonality argument for July to be well-known, if not an outright literal rallying cry for a market which continues to flounder. As the S&P 500 Index struggles to reclaim 3800, one has to wonder if the July bull setup may be a nasty trap which spawns a new leg down in the bear market.  What...

30Jun10:51 amEST

It's Not Adding Up

After a promising start to the week, oil stocks are giving up the ghost as we speak which is all the more an issue for the market given the persistent selling in growth and tech stocks.  We are in a seasonally stronger period for the next few weeks. However, this price action is not yet adding up to something actionable on the long side as I...

29Jun11:06 amEST

Morgan Stanley Agrees with Market Chess on Carnival

Fresh multi-year lows for cruise line Carnival this morning, as a Morgan Stanley analyst slashed the price target down to $7, and also laid out a super bear thesis  for shares to go to $0 with a potential demand shock looming.  A few weeks back, we noted that  we expect one of the major cruises, CCL NCLH or RCL, to file bankruptcy in 2022....

28Jun3:23 pmEST

A Downhill Threat

I came into today with a few longs on to probe the bear market rally thesis and bullish seasonality. But clearly the duration and size of the intraday selling off the opening pop took my aback. I felt fortunate to get out of one of the longs with modest, while stopping out of another.  As it stands now, my chief concern is the likes of junk and...

28Jun11:07 amEST

Inflation: Cherry Pickers' Paradise is Here

One phenomenon I am expecting, and already have seen quite a bit of, during this new inflationary regime is that when the inevitable dips come in certain, specific inflation readings we will see many harp on it as prima facie evidence of inflation effectively being squashed as a whole.  But I have serious doubts it will be as a simple as that. ...

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