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Showing articles 11 - 20 (5818 total)

16May10:55 amEST

You Don't Have to Be a Private Eye to Figure it Out

Energy and agricultural products continue to rise this morning despite a mostly red opening for stocks as a group, as The Fed talking heads keep resting their hopes that inflation will magically recede to make their lives easier.  In reality, as The Fed willingly stays miles behind the curve headed into summer, where oil and gasoline demand...

15May10:01 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/15/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

13May10:01 amEST

A Series of Battles

Bear markets often feature a series of battles, even relatively shorter-term duration ones like 2008. We had bear market rallies from March-May 2008, then a pedestrian one over the summer, and even around the time Lehman failed and TARP was passed in September we had ridiculous, convincing squeezes which shocked and scared even the most...

12May11:29 amEST

The First Mover Fallacy in Game Theory

In 1923, Jesse Livermore wrote, “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth---or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” These eighths have cost traders billions of dollars over the years. Over the years, this is a lesson I have tried to learn over and...

11May2:56 pmEST

Reminder: It's a Bear Market, Which Means We Tend to Make New Lows

Part of the nefarious nature of bonafide bear markets (as defined by price below a declining 200-day moving average on the major indices for an extended duration , not the short-lived COVID crash which came and went in a matter of weeks) coming off an extended period of rampant speculative bull market fervor is that they lull even smart,...

11May10:30 amEST

And After All That...

By now, you know about ARKK, earnings blow-ups like U and UPST, inflation, even the Tiger Fund, as do most active market players.  And what we are left with at the moment is some of the most violent price swings you will see even in a bear market, at least one which is not outright crashing. No, instead, we have an epic battle in progress, as...

10May3:07 pmEST

Crouching Tiger Fund, Hidden Systemic Risk

Tiger Global Management, a sizable hedge fund based out of New York and run by Chase Coleman, III., has been part of the buzz lately due to the drawdowns the fund has suffered. You can see their latest holdings here ,  which should shed light on how aggressively they are positioned into tech and growth stocks. Hence, due to the nature of the...

10May10:10 amEST

Lay of the Land

The major indices are recovering most or all of yesterday's drubbing after an overnight squeeze in the futures market. We will hear from President Biden later this morning on the hot button topic of inflation, which should be a market sensitive event leading up to tomorrow morning's CPI print. I am going to guess his speech writers will have...

09May2:38 pmEST

Not Every Safe Stock is Safe Here

With a Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio now over 3 (anything over 1 tends to turn off value investors), a forward PE in the 20s, and a multi-year chart which is as steep as the quarterly PEP seen below, you would be hard-pressed to make a sound case right now that Pepsico represents compelling value.  Instead, the more likely bull case is that...

09May10:38 amEST

You Fell Victim to One of the Classic Blunders

Bear markets are notorious, in their relatively early stages, for creating a narrative as to why a certain bearish outcome simply cannot happen. Many market payers, due to prior conditioning of the bull market (especially this one) assume the former glory leaders like the "FAANG" gang will roar back to new highs as inflation recedes and growth...

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