MarketChess

21Oct1:21 pmEST

Pop Quiz, Hotshot

We have a few big tests in progress on the indices here, with the small caps (IWM daily chart, first below) and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ daily chart, second below) testing their 200 and 50-day moving averages, respectively, from the underside, meaning price had broken below those reference points and is now bouncing up to test them. These are...

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19Oct3:05 pmEST

Peaches and Cream Monday

Today marks thirty-nine years to the precise date (Monday, October 19th, 1987) of the infamous "Black Monday" crash. Unlike Black Tuesday, which occurred on October 29th, 1929, there are still quite a few folks alive who can give firsthand accounts of Black Monday.  No such Black Monday occurred today to pay homage to that crash, however....

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16Oct3:04 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/16/26 {Video}

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15Oct3:08 pmEST

Celebrating the Wrong Thing

As we noted yesterday, both here and with Members, Treasuries went the other way after both the hot CPI yesterday and then the red-hot PPI inflation readings this morning. Bulls have been celebrating what they view as an overdue rally in bonds, as rates finally come back down a bit. However, the key issue is whether the bond market is actually...

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14Oct3:13 pmEST

Recession Trade, Smoke 'em if You Got 'Em

As we noted with Members in last evening's full video recap, there was perhaps no greater sign of complacency from bulls not just about markets but the broad economy when it came to this morning's CPI report. Headed into the report there was a consensus brewing from equity bulls and interest rate doves that even though the main number could...

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13Oct2:57 pmEST

A Dead Ringer

South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index has been having a rough couple of sessions, which reinforces the recent weakness we have seen in the semiconductors, overall, since the KOSPI is essentially highly levered index to AI (or "SI," if you like) these days.  But beyond looking at this weakness in a vacuum, the larger concern is when we put it into...

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12Oct2:16 pmEST

Arbitrage

Consistent with the zeitgeist of this market, last week's headlines speculating on a takeover of Chipotle by Starbucks saw traders embrace the "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) in lieu of possible risks such as, oh I don't know, perhaps the whole theory of the M&A between the two firms being a desperate attempt to pacify underwater shareholders,...

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09Oct2:53 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/09/26 {Video}

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07Oct3:13 pmEST

Out of Tune

Despite some fairly hawkish Fed Minutes this afternoon it appears as though a solid 10-Year auction is sufficient to send rates back below 5.3% as I write this in the final hour. That said, rate-sensitive sectors like the REITs (IYR) and homebuilders (XHB) are not responding in kind to the fade in rates, at least not yet. Regarding the Minutes,...

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06Oct2:57 pmEST

Film Noir Market

One of the central elements of the film noir genre is a fatalistic storyline. Fatalistic is defined as the belief or attitude that all events are predetermined, inevitable, and impossible for humans to change or avoid. Thus, when viewing the price action across markets these days, one cannot help but wonder if we have a fatalistic storyline...

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