MarketChess

29Apr3:49 pmEST

Wars Actually End

"You can't even call this a war. Wars end." -The Wire As we turn the page on Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed Chair, it is hard to believe (although I should know better at this point) that he could actually say with a straight face this afternoon that there is no case for a meaningfully restrictive monetary policy. Seeing as inflation has...

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28Apr3:20 pmEST

The Test Almost Always Comes

With Jerome Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve expiring on May 15th, roughly two and a half weeks from now, it is instructive to examine prior instances of new Fed Chairs coming into power and how markets have reacted. Of course, you might argue the market reactions and new Fed Chairs were "correlations, not causations." Furthermore,...

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27Apr3:16 pmEST

Going Global to Undermine the Oil Bear Case

One of the more popular arguments oil bears are making right now to justify crude oil not quite super-spiking is that the wisdom of the market is accounting for "demand destruction," be it from China and/or the world at-large. This argument seeks to squash any notion of, hypothetically speaking, government intervention in the front month...

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24Apr3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/24/26 {Video}

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23Apr3:02 pmEST

Hot Summer for Winter Warriors

DBA, the ETF for a basket of soft commodities, is turning in a strong session as I write this, quietly printing seven month highs today. We have been quite bullish on wheat for a while now. And you can see on the second daily chart, below, DBA is sporting an explosive-looking base breakout pattern. What makes this setup even more menacing to...

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22Apr2:38 pmEST

It's Tough to Micromanage Every Market

News of the Trump Administration on the edge of bailing out Spirit Airlines , a low cost carrier with a reputation for shaky customer service and, shall we say, a not-so-friendly atmosphere in the skies, simply reinforces how active a role Trump believes government should play in most aspects of the economy. Capitalism without failure is like...

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21Apr3:00 pmEST

A Teachable Moment Amid the Chaos

Lost in the shuffle of whether or not there will be another round of talks in Pakistan this week is the fact that the heart of earnings season is in the early stages of ramping up into May. Indeed, there are plenty of other headlines to distract us from that fact, be it Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill, as well as the various...

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20Apr3:12 pmEST

From Islamabad to Islamaworse

I have no earthly idea what is going on behind the scenes between the U.S., Israel, Iran, Pakistan, and Lord knows who else may be involved with these "talks" for a potential peace deal. But what I can say for sure is that the nonstop contradictory headlines surpasses even the desperation of 2008, which seems absurd given that the major indices...

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17Apr3:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/17/26 {Video}

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16Apr3:27 pmEST

Get Back in Your Hole!

None other than Henry "Hank" Paulson popped his head seemingly out of nowhere (he runs a Chicago-based think tank these days) to opine that a "vicious" bond market crash is coming . Paulson, as you know, was Treasury Secretary in 2008 during the heart of the Global Financial Crisis. While he has largely been out of the spotlight ever since,...

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