MarketChess

13Aug11:40 amEST

Speak of the (Venti) Devil

In yesterday's note we discussed waiting for a rally  in Starbucks before looking to attack the short side again potentially into 2025.  Consistent with this market, however, everything--and I mean everything--seems to get pulled forward on the bull side.  Specifically, Starbucks just effectively plucked Chipotle's highly acclaimed CEO . ...

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12Aug12:07 pmEST

Here's to Hoping Starbucks Rallies More

...but it's not what bulls ultimately want.  After lagging the broad market and most large consumer names badly for well over a year now it should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone with experience on Wall Street to see activist investor Starboard Value take a stake in Starbucks.  On the monthly chart, updated below, we can see SBUX...

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09Aug3:09 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/09/24 {Video}

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08Aug11:17 amEST

Daily Dose of Perspective

One of the more interesting aspects about a market which sees increasingly violently and random price swings is that you see folks try to claim victory for each and every single move. Mind you, I, too, was once a young man in this business so I understand the temptation. But even some veterans cannot resist the urge to be on top of every single...

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07Aug12:37 pmEST

Close Together Doesn't Mean Best Friends

In just a few trading sessions the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index went from multi-year highs as the hottest rotation plays in the market down to multi-month lows. The IWM, ETF for the Russell (below, on the updated daily chart), shows the small caps violently testing the 200-day moving average (yellow line) on Monday before bouncing up to...

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06Aug12:20 pmEST

Vol of Vols

Looking at the updated hourly chart for the Nasdaq, below, the rally today seems rather rudimentary as far as relief bounces go in the context of downtrends (on this timeframe, of course). We are drifting up to the 20-period hourly chart moving average and still making lower highs and lower lows by price over the last few weeks.  However, bulls...

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05Aug10:13 amEST

You Don't Know What This is, Do You?

Seeing as we are in the dog days of summer, where most of Wall Street's "Masters of the Universe" are off in the Hamptons, on Cape Cod, or somewhere along the Mediterranean, not to mention the Olympics taking place in Paris, it is quite noteworthy indeed to see markets dive lower to the degree they did off the open as the VIX surges.  Put...

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02Aug1:30 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/02/24 {Video}

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01Aug11:24 amEST

Swingers

The increasingly wild price swings continue to be the true message of this market of late, as bulls thought they were totally in the clear for an unbridled short squeeze higher after the monstrous snapback rallies in NVDA, semis, and many tech names yesterday on the back of the FOMC, then META earnings last evening.  And while META is still...

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31Jul3:30 pmEST

It May Not Be the Right Cut

Earlier this month I sold out of a long-term short in Treasuries (long TBT, an ETF ultra-short TLT, seen below on the weekly chart; long TBT is basically a bet on higher rates and lower Treasury prices). As I noted with Members, my long-term view is still that the bond market is in serious trouble, but I saw a better entry price coming later...

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