MarketChess

09May1:50 pmEST

No Jinx

We have another slow melt-up type of tape today in equities, as semiconductors slightly lag due to AVGO NVDA SMTC weakness. This type of action has become so commonplace that no-one even bats an eye anymore, including hardcore bears, when we see the opening thrust down immediately met with a V-shaped buying program and a subsequent grind the...

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08May12:28 pmEST

You Cannot Anime Your Way to Prosperity

A diving Japanese Yen currency in April began to worry the developed economy central banks and governments to the point where we saw a clear Japanese intervention into their own currency.  The level which seemed to cause the most alarm was $160 on the Dollar/Yen cross, seen on the monthly chart, below. Given that the Yen is the denominator in...

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07May1:08 pmEST

Chasing the Mystery

Much debate is currently swirling about whether we are, in fact, seeing another wave higher of inflation or, instead, inflation is either flat-lining or even receding. There seem to be intelligent, well-studied folks on both sides of that debate. Housing and rents figure to be the tiebreaker. And as we know, real estate can be inherently local...

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06May12:31 pmEST

The Time is Now for Commodities

While skeptics will surely point to the recent unwind in cocoa's parabolic move, the reality is that commodities are staging an impressive, broad-based rally today after some generally mild recent consolidations almost across the board.  You may also notice that some of the more notorious commodities, regarding prior false breakouts and...

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03May1:19 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/03/24 {Video}

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02May11:42 amEST

A Hangover Into Apple

Although I have strong personal opinions about Powell and The Fed, the fact remains that the market is still sorting out the FOMC yesterday and all of its possible ramifications. Hence, it is probably not too instructive to spend much more time in a blog post bloviating about the current monetary policy.  Far more relevant and tangible for us...

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01May12:01 pmEST

Breaking Away

You may be surprised to know that shares of Starbucks are currently trading at the same spot they were five years ago nearly to the day. This is a consequence of the latest earnings gap down last evening, amid terrible comps.  On the updated monthly chart for SBUX, below, you can see the monstrous breakaway gap lower--To see such a gap on the...

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30Apr1:11 pmEST

Occam's Razor Earnings Season

Although the headlines last Thursday evening noted that Microsoft was "surging" after earnings alongside GOOGL, the aftermath has been anything but that for "Mister Softee." As a reminder, MSFT is the largest publicly-traded firm in America, at nearly $3 trillion. A blowout earnings rally in AAPL NVDA, or further rampage in GOOGL may unseat...

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29Apr11:54 amEST

I Refuse to Believe the Fix is In

Watching  Eight Men Out (1988), one of my favorite all-time period piece historical films, again last evening, I thought about some emails I received from readers of late positing that "they" simply will not let the market fall in an election year. If you have seen the film then you know the relevance of considering whether markets are...

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26Apr12:38 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/26/24 {Video}

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