16Dec12:25 amEST

Late Night Strategy for Tuesday

B4q0hdBIEAEtEqU.jpg-large SHW, seen on the daily chart below, illustrates that even the strongest issues in the market are hanging on for dear life. Note the highlighted rising channel price has enjoyed climbing of late, but recently struggled to maintain. I view a move back under $245 as representing a short trigger to play for a well-defined channel breakdown. I suggest a stop over $253 with a downside target of $230. The relative strength long ideas remain the same basket, on further strength in them and the broad market: NAT NILE RUBI SCSS TXRH. I should also point out the false breakouts which bulls have quietly swept under the rug in names like AXP K KO, even IYR. The market is supposed to stage some type of oversold bounce here. But failure to do so would be an ominous sign, especially with the action in Russia and the oil pits. The irony is that many momentum traders have already suffered damaging drawdowns this year, even without a deep broad market correction. If the time is now for that deep correction, it could easily be the death blow to those who threw caution to the wind. You don't make that same mistake. SHW

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