Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5533 total)
08May10:38 amEST
Top Two Pair
As oil tries to sustain a relief rally alongside oil-related stocks, note that the two best performers in the OIH (ETF for the beaten-down oil services stocks) have consistently been RIG snd VAL, respectively below on their daily charts, over the last week or so. These are still high on my radar due to their short squeeze potential, at a...
06May2:50 pmEST
It's Easy to Forget
Equities staged an intraday fade of an initial bounce off headlines that Trump teased imminent trade deals, which may be an early sign of fatigue on the part of the market regarding the nonstop conjecture around the various tariffs we have seen for a good while now. As they say, there is only so much tread on a tire. In addition, Nick Timiraos...
05May2:42 pmEST
You're in the Wrong Town
Equities are lethargic and mixed, overall, in front of both HIMS PLTR earnings this evening (two of the more prominent growth plays of late) and then the FOMC on Wednesday. However, you will note rates on the long end of the curve pushing higher yet. With the Trump Tax Bill pending, meaning that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed that...
04May11:37 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/04/25 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
01May1:45 pmEST
Don't Get High on Your Own Overhead Supply
Microsoft is surging more than 8% today, a sizable move for a name as large as it is in terms of market cap. For several quarters now we have profiled the relative and absolute weakness in MSFT, to the point where bulls ignored the name, essentially, during the winter months in favor of whatever was working at the time. However, at a certain...
30Apr12:12 pmEST
Claws Versus Horns
Courtesy of the Modern Wealth Management website , the below chart is instructive insofar as putting in to perspective just what a bear market rally actually looks like and how long it can last. I define an ongoing bear market as the major indices primarily operating below a declining 200-day moving average, with attempts to regain the...
28Apr12:55 pmEST
Nike: Just Extrapolate It
With Nike earnings are out of the way, the retail icon still looks like it is still scared of its own shadow. While NKE is certainly cheaper than it has been, it trades, even now, at a forward PE of 29 and is far from a dirt cheap, "blue light special." In other words, it is more likely to be a value trap than a value buy even after a...
24Apr3:34 pmEST
You Sure About That, Slick?
Both Chipotle and Tesla, respectively on their daily charts, below, are green after earnings this week, a point celebrated by bulls as illustrating that their prior multi-month downtrends had priced in all bad news for now. However, the bounces are objectively not impressive thus far. Both CMG and TSLA remain in firm downtrends, with price...
17Apr9:29 amEST
Ten Years in the Books for Market Chess
If you have followed my work over the years then you know that I generally abstain from indulging in self-aggrandizing. The wins come, the losses come. That is life as a true speculator. I put myself out there every single day and let the chips fall where they may. So, there is no need for constant puffery--My work and personality are not for...
16Apr10:12 amEST
Glass Half Empty Rally
Retail sales jumped this morning. China said overnight that they would be at least open to negotiations on the trade war and Taiwan. And, yet, equities opened this morning with a sharp, Nasdaq-led gap down as NVIDIA leads lower by 6% on news of them facing a $5.5 billion charge as the U.S. restricts chip sales to China. In other words, despite...
09Apr3:31 pmEST
Roller Coaster of Tariff Love
The afternoon broad market surge today on the back of President Trump announcing a 90-day postponement of non-China tariffs has understandably galvanized longs while stupefying bears. After all, the major indices shot up nearly 10% in a matter of moments. In moments like these, and indeed in markets like these, overall, it is quite easy to...
08Apr3:03 pmEST
Now That's a Fade
Today's fade off a 4%-plus broad rally from earlier in the session seems like more evidence that we are in a new market regime, transitioning from long-term bull to bear. Tons of market players and pundits alike, respected veterans included, have planted the proverbial flag in the ground in recent sessions to declare a bottom is locked in,...
07Apr1:15 pmEST
Yes, That Counts
With false rumors swirling all day today about alleged pauses and delays in tariffs, we saw the S&P 500 Index surge earlier from 4,826 up to 5,246 in a matter of moments. First and foremost, that sort of violence (hard and fast price swings, intraday moves) is far more characteristic of a bear than a bull market, overall. The reason being Bear...
03Apr2:20 pmEST
Sloppy Margarine or Smooth as Butter?
The main issue which intrigues me during this sell-off is whether we see margin calls (essentially forced, indiscriminate selling which often aligns with actual fear and panic as markets cascade lower) this afternoon into the closing bell, which of course is a function of brokers and risk management departments asserting themselves as markets...
02Apr2:25 pmEST
Block Out the Noise
It looks like we will not know the full gauntlet of President Trump's tariff plans until after the closing bell today, with a press event in the Rose Garden slated for 4 p.m. EST. In the meantime, stocks have taken the liberty of rallying several times today, though as we speak we have a substantial fade well off session highs. The fact...
01Apr1:11 pmEST
Nice 'N' Easy Does it for Energy Stocks
Much like the commodity complex at-large we have some energy stocks clearly making progress on the technical front in recent weeks and months while others are still searching for a clear bottom--Gold, silver, and natural gas have made clear strides in recent months, with gold being the ringleader in commodities, while other commodities like oil...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
