Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5811 total)
20Aug1:28 pmEST
Moo Moo Buckaroo
A mere one trading session after the Treasury announced support for the long end of the curve yesterday we have Treasuries lower today as rates on the 10-Year out to the 30-Year move back higher. Beyond that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is out and about with tons of comments about, perhaps, raising the amount of buybacks to support said long...
19Aug2:41 pmEST
Market Message to Warsh: You Have No Marbles!
Despite some hawkish Fed Minutes released earlier this afternoon from the July FOMC, markets seem to be of the mindset that Kevin Warsh and his Committee need to actually demonstrate their concerns about inflation by actually hiking rates at the September FOMC, rather than merely paying it lip service. On the updated odds of a hike in...
18Aug2:06 pmEST
Annyeonghaseyo to This Indicator
We know that the semiconductors are having a sizable down session today as I write this. However, gauging South Korea (via the EWY country ETF, seen on the updated daily chart, below) confirms this unwind, given the historically high leverage and speculation in South Korea relative to AI and the semis. Note the recent steep rally since...
17Aug3:10 pmEST
What a Beautiful Day
With rates on the long bond (30-year T-bond) hitting nineteen year highs today, and getting a fair amount of media coverage for doing so, market players are finally starting to realize that The Fed only controls the overnight (or Federal Funds Rate), at least for the time being. In a similar vein, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent...
13Aug3:16 pmEST
Slow Summer Wind Days
With Labor Day falling a bit later than usual this year, we still have roughly three and half week left of summer trading. And it may as well be three months, with the way this market is trading. By now, the "dispersion" trade is fairly obvious, with day-to-day rotations propping up the indices despite some heavy drawdowns in the AI/Mag7 names...
12Aug3:19 pmEST
Make Him Proud
It has been an exceedingly rough five years for shares of Wendy's, as the fast food titan has suffered amid constant concerns that the iconic brand (thrust into the spotlight by Dave Thomas decades ago) has stayed too long at the dance. Specifically, the overall quality of the products and services seemed to be suffering, with various store...
11Aug3:30 pmEST
Escape from Hormuz
My friend Jon Krinsky put out a piece today magnifying just how much of an outlier this price action has truly been. On his chart, below, we can see that 2026 would be the only year in at least thirty years that had zero 80% downside volume days. Of course, the year is far from over, as we head into tomorrow morning's CPI inflation print. But...
10Aug2:56 pmEST
It's in the Reaction
We have looked at the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen currency cross, which was at the epicenter of the late-July intervention by both the Treasury and the Japanese Ministry of Finance ("MoF"). But for the sake of continuity, the first daily chart, below, is an ETF for the Japanese Yen, the FXY. You can clearly see the late-July intervention designed...
05Aug3:18 pmEST
And Now Here Comes Gold
To follow-up on yesterday's piece about platinum and palladium , gold and silver are confirming the potential bottoming action today. On the GLD ETF (for gold bullion), below on the daily timeframe, note the surge in buy volume (bottom pane) accompanying the price breakout from the base bottom. While it is certainly true that GLD remains...
04Aug2:39 pmEST
New Beginnings
"New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings." -Laozi Seasonality for the precious metals and miners continues to favor September. However, one can envision a scenario where the painful ending of these various multi-quarter corrections in the sector comes to a conclusion here in August before turning higher with sustainability next...
03Aug2:29 pmEST
No More Taco! I Want French Fried Potaters
It seems like the algos are the only ones these days who do not recognize just how absurd the war "on-again, off-again" pattern is conveniently playing out around market hours and weekends. One has to wonder just how scary markets will become if and when the algos finally flip and begin to sell everything, regardless of perceived "TACO"...
30Jul2:12 pmEST
Sliding Down the Side
One of the best quotes about markets that I have seen (you will pardon me for forgetting who said it, and where I read it) was something to the effect of: Bear market moves typically do not happen in a linear way, the way we often imagine they do. Instead, they are often akin to tossing a ball down the side of a mountain, with numerous, random,...
29Jul3:22 pmEST
Watch for the Revolt
Bulls initially celebrated The Fed choosing to stand pat today, even though the odds in the interest rate swaps market clearly favored no hike (nor cut). There were three dissenters favoring a hike. But without question the initial move off the Fed decision in stocks was higher, with the Nasdaq climbing back soundly in the green during Fed...
28Jul3:27 pmEST
The Glowworm Turns
With the meat of a busy week still ahead of us, insofar as the FOMC tomorrow and various Mag7 (and other big ones like ARM KLAC LRCX) names reporting in the coming days, not to mention Thursday morning's loaded macro slate, we have a decidedly familiar trading session taking place today. Specifically, the rotation game. Money is coming out of...
27Jul1:52 pmEST
Bears Need the Prestige
Christopher Nolan's 2006 film, The Prestige (my personal favorite as his best work, as I am not as much of a fan as his more popular films) describes every great magic trick consisting of three acts: The Pledge, The Turn, and The Prestige. Michael Caine's character walks throng each element several times throughout the film. In the current...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
