Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5624 total)
07Oct3:11 pmEST
Is That the End?
Without question this market has to rank as one of the all-time epic melt-ups in the Nasdaq, especially considering the economic backdrop and geopolitical tensions, not to mention monetary and fiscal blunders. Still, the party has rolled on, with many of the main characters/CEOs in the AI story having been at the epicenter of the dot-com...
06Oct3:13 pmEST
It's Still Lock and Roll to Me
You might have looked at the daily charts for both GLD (ETF for gold) and SMH (ETF for semiconductors) and arrived at the conclusion that they bear an uncanny resemblance to each other. After all, they both have enjoyed a steep multi-month uptrend and are gapping up aggressively today, the former on happenings in Japan and the latter off the...
02Oct3:15 pmEST
The Sprouts Test
By now it is becoming increasingly ubiquitous to acknowledge that the economy is of the "K-shaped" variety, which basically means the rich get richer while just about everyone flounders, fighting hard to stay on top of bills, expensive, survival. We have profiled, both here and with Members, the destruction of prominent consumer names being...
01Oct3:09 pmEST
Let the Winter Pass in October
"Sometimes it is best to lie low, to do nothing but let the winter pass." -Robert Greene Despite how lousy crude oil itself has been, particularly when it comes to sustaining upside moves, quite a few oil stocks and related names to the oil space (e.g. tankers, discussed with Members) are acting quite well. Exhibit A would be APA (Apache)...
30Sep3:18 pmEST
Cereal Gamblers and Serial Gamblers
Prediction platform Kalshi (not to be confused with the "healthy" cereal Kashi) is sending shock waves throughout the online gambling world today, apparently having a bigger-than-expected chunk of market share in sports betting during the all-important football season. We know Kalshi does well in those states where it is, of course, legal, like...
29Sep2:48 pmEST
If You Open That Door...
Compare and contrast a recent Yahoo Financial article versus the infamous Irving Fisher quote less than two weeks before the 1929 crash, respectively below. You are welcome to call this doom and gloom posting if you like. But the fact remains that, objectively, these types of declarative statements about markets in such a cocksure way, about...
25Sep2:06 pmEST
Dangerous Temptations
This market regime, centered around the Nasdaq names, will not end unless and until we see the recurring theme (likely in the hundreds by now since early-2023) of opening gaps down aggressively getting bought begins to effectively punish bulls. In order to do that we need to see a plethora of daily closes on the lows, or near them, and then...
24Sep1:58 pmEST
Everyone Who Wanted to Sell Oil By Now, Already Has
One of the more instructive aspects about observing long-term timeframes is to gain clarity. Specifically, in the case of oil we have the ETF, on the first quarterly chart, below, sporting the "bull killer" pattern of a crash more than ten years ago followed by the last ten years of, overall, tedious sideways action. In other words, since the...
23Sep3:19 pmEST
Head Games Galore
The nature of a market melt-up is that classic bearish reversal signals are routinely ignored and even openly mocked. After all, if "stocks only go up because 'they' won't let them drop," is the prevailing mantra then what good is it to assign any significance, whatsoever, to textbook potential reversal candlesticks or patterns? Simply put,...
22Sep3:05 pmEST
Let Them Eat Punches to the Face
If the plan after April's pivot by the Treasury Secretary (recall, "It is Main Street's turn now," which lasted about as long as a blink of the eye) and White House Administration at-large was to goose virtually all assets at the expense of the overwhelming majority of Americans' cost of living, then so far so good--Just today we have another...
18Sep11:25 amEST
A Rare Triple Lindy
On news of the NVIDIA $5 billion stake and partnership with Intel we have semiconductors shooting higher, leading the tape this morning after yesterday's FOMC rate cut. The SMH, sector ETF for chips, is now very overbought (clearly above its upper Bollinger Band) on the monthly, quarterly, and yearly charts, all respectively below. To see...
16Sep2:18 pmEST
Welcome Back
It seems fitting that APA Corporation (below on the daily chart), the holding company for energy exploration firm, Apache, is leading both the XLE and XOP oil stock ETFs higher today amid a strong session for crude oil and gasoline. After all, APA is one of the cheapest stocks by valuation in the entire market at this point, completely out of...
15Sep2:33 pmEST
Not All Overboughts Are Created Equal
Both precious miners (See: GDX ETF daily chart, first below) and the Nasdaq are higher again, as both are pushing the boundaries of near-term overbought conditions. However, that is where the comparisons mostly end. Even though precious miners have been on a tear for nearly six weeks now they still remain woefully undervalued. They are also...
10Sep3:42 pmEST
Hiding in the Shadows
It is not just the likes of Chipotle, Starbucks, or Lululemon weakening on a daily basis in retail/consumer space these days, as those names could--and have, by equity and macro bulls--easily be dismissed for brand maturity and losing market share to newcomers. Instead, we are taking about titans of industry, Costco and Visa, respectively...
09Sep12:46 pmEST
Fear Does Not Exist in This Doji
A doji is a single candlestick pattern in which the open and close prices of the security or market are the same or very close to it. ( Investopedia ) U.S. Job growth was revised down by a whopping 911,000 through March of this year, indicative of erroneous views by many about a robust goldilocks economy in recent quarters. Mind you, this...
08Sep2:27 pmEST
You Gonna Make a Cake, Too?
Treasuries, gold, and most of the Nasdaq are up today, in most cases quite decisively, as a looming rate cut at the September 17th FOMC seems all but a lock. Of course, one major issue is whether Powell and his crew decide to cut 25 or 50 bps--A 25bps cut may very well disappoint markets, although 50bps may scare them into thinking something...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
