Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5587 total)
07Aug2:28 pmEST
I Feel Sorry for Your Bubble
Putting to one side the fade in large cap tech today, the perennial lagging sectors like regional banks (KRE ETF) and smaller cap biotech (XBI ETF, below on the daily chart) have not quite lived up to the many calls for a bonafide rotation into the back half of 2025 and beyond. For a good while now we have been in both in a bifurcated market...
06Aug10:29 amEST
One Last Trip for Old Times' Sake
It should not come as too much of surprise to see the semiconductor AMD struggle after earnings in the area above $160. After all, gauging the monthly chart, below, we have seen Advanced Micro Devices run into major tops above that level dating back several years now. As I write this, AMD is leading the SMH semiconductor ETF lower, the former...
04Aug2:09 pmEST
Big Week for Vegas But Well Off the Strip
In light of recent buzz about the plight of Las Vegas, it seems fitting that DraftKings is set to report earnings this week on Wednesday evening. After all, on top of rising room rates/resort fees in Vegas as well as a multitude of other factors, the rise of legalized online gambling across the country is surely one of several reasons for Las...
31Jul3:28 pmEST
Muddy Tug of War
The ARM earnings disappointment (down 13.7%) has had a surprisingly strong effect on the Nasdaq today, considering all of the hype surrounding both Meta and Microsoft rallying sharply after earnings last evening. As it stands now META is still up more than 11%, MSFT up nearly 4%, yet the QQQ is red as we head into Apple and Amazon earnings this...
30Jul3:35 pmEST
Weak Fed Leadership Marred by Dissents and Bessents
Today's FOMC decision to hold rates steady was met with two dissents among the voting members, marking the first time in more than thirty years we have seen a double dissent. Fed Chair Jay Powell's constant toeing the line seems to finally be wearing thin with most, as he would rather engage in legalese, "arguments for both sides," in lieu of...
29Jul10:23 amEST
Whirlpool Out in the Cold Rhymes with Stagflation
The concept of history "rhyming" remains firmly intact even as the S&P and Nasdaq melt up every single (or perhaps because of it), insofar and the comparison to the early-1970s. Specifically, over fifty years ago we had the mighty NIFTY FIFTY market growth leaders melting up and eventually topping out, too, all the while stagflation (slowing...
28Jul2:47 pmEST
Follow the North Water
"The North Water" refers to a fictional voyage of a whaling ship in the 1850s, which is the setting of Ian McGuire's novel and subsequent BBC/AMC miniseries of the same name. The "north water" specifically refers to the North Water Polynya, an area of open water in the Arctic where whales migrate, making it a crucial hunting ground for whalers...
27Jul10:24 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/27/25 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
24Jul12:43 pmEST
Stand By Your Mine
Colorado-based Newmont Mining reports tonight, a name I have held for years in the VIP section of Market Chess Subscription Services, which is dedicated to long-term investing. Despite Newmont coming on strongly over the last eighteen months or so, when we look at the multi-decade chart, below, you can clearly see the stock trading, overall,...
22Jul2:17 pmEST
It's Funny...Up to a Point
Shares of D.R. Horton and Pulte Homes are rallying sharply after earnings and leading a sizable rally in homebuilder stocks at-large today. As I write this the XHB ETF is up more than 5.25%, a monstrous move for a sector ETF, with DHI and PHM the leaders up 15% and 10%, respectively. Indeed, it seems like it is all fun and games for housing...
21Jul2:34 pmEST
Each Scoop Gets Smaller for Chipotle
Trading at a forward PE of almost 37, Chipotle is far from cheap even after a prolonged period of underperformance by its shares on an absolute basis and, of course, on a relative basis to the epic melt-up in tech/AI names. CMG is not alone, however, as the prominent consumer names like LULU NKE SBUX, even COST of late, have been...
16Jul2:22 pmEST
He Wasn't Right in the Head
The odds of any Fed policy action in the FOMC later month are nearly zero. However, according to the CME FedWatch website , the odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC are currently just under 60%. But those odds were significant higher not too long ago, up above 90% at one point. Clearly, rates on the long end of the curve pushing higher...
15Jul3:06 pmEST
Dress it Up as Much as You Like
NVIDIA is still the main event for this market, with the $4 trillion market cap behemoth and current largest firm in the world surging again today on news they are selling some AI chips to China. On the quarterly NVDA chart, below, the comparisons to RCA in the 1920s and CSCO from the dot-com bubble still seem relevant. Note the bearish RSI...
14Jul1:59 pmEST
It's a Dangerous Puzzle
There does not seem to be pretty much any fear in equities headed into tomorrow morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which reveals the inflation data as of June. I still expect inflation to turn back higher and surprise many who are looking for a Fed rate cut sooner than later. Mind you, The Fed can do whatever it wants, including...
10Jul2:01 pmEST
REMX for the Bull Market Remix
One of the more fascinating aspects about the stagflation of the 1970s was that even as the NIFTY FIFTY bubble finally popped and saw the major indices get cut in half, gold, oil, and most commodities in general thrived. It was not the deep depression of the 1930s where virtually everything deflated. Now, part of that may be due to 1971, when...
09Jul3:17 pmEST
Not Natural, But Strong
Amazon saw its big summer Prime Day sales down 41%, year over year, in the first day of their four-day event yesterday. In addition, Jeff Bezos just unloaded over $600 million worth of Amazon shares to the open market. And, yet, Amazon is higher today as the likes of META NVDA lead the Nasdaq. With the Fed Minutes coming in more or less as...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
