Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5844 total)
15Oct3:08 pmEST
Celebrating the Wrong Thing
As we noted yesterday, both here and with Members, Treasuries went the other way after both the hot CPI yesterday and then the red-hot PPI inflation readings this morning. Bulls have been celebrating what they view as an overdue rally in bonds, as rates finally come back down a bit. However, the key issue is whether the bond market is actually...
14Oct3:13 pmEST
Recession Trade, Smoke 'em if You Got 'Em
As we noted with Members in last evening's full video recap, there was perhaps no greater sign of complacency from bulls not just about markets but the broad economy when it came to this morning's CPI report. Headed into the report there was a consensus brewing from equity bulls and interest rate doves that even though the main number could...
13Oct2:57 pmEST
A Dead Ringer
South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index has been having a rough couple of sessions, which reinforces the recent weakness we have seen in the semiconductors, overall, since the KOSPI is essentially highly levered index to AI (or "SI," if you like) these days. But beyond looking at this weakness in a vacuum, the larger concern is when we put it into...
12Oct2:16 pmEST
Arbitrage
Consistent with the zeitgeist of this market, last week's headlines speculating on a takeover of Chipotle by Starbucks saw traders embrace the "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) in lieu of possible risks such as, oh I don't know, perhaps the whole theory of the M&A between the two firms being a desperate attempt to pacify underwater shareholders,...
07Oct3:13 pmEST
Out of Tune
Despite some fairly hawkish Fed Minutes this afternoon it appears as though a solid 10-Year auction is sufficient to send rates back below 5.3% as I write this in the final hour. That said, rate-sensitive sectors like the REITs (IYR) and homebuilders (XHB) are not responding in kind to the fade in rates, at least not yet. Regarding the Minutes,...
01Oct3:12 pmEST
Even the Groundhog is Tired of This Market
To say that this market has been stuck in a redundant feedback loop which would make Groundhog Day (1993) blush would be the understatement of the century at this point. In particular, each and every single day (and overnight) the tape is bombarded with headlines from Trump, the White House, and various Fed-heads attempting to assuage any...
30Sep3:11 pmEST
You Cannot Fool All of the Markets, All of the Time
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” -Abraham Lincoln Within the hour we will finally have that explosive candlestick for rates on the 10-Year Note officially in the books, as the third quarter of trading ends today. On the updated TNX...
29Sep2:57 pmEST
Golden Top Arches
While the rally in shares of Carnival Cruise Lines is popping today after earnings, that chart remains broken and the gap looks to be nothing more than a retest of the prior $25/$26 breakdown level. Instead, I maintain that the likes of Costco, Walmart, and McDonald's are far better tests for the health (or lack thereof) of 80-90% of the...
28Sep2:02 pmEST
The Writing on the Wall
Just because we know the daily rumor mill will keep heavily churning indefinitely does not make this type of market regime any less exhausting and tedious to trade on a daily basis. It certainly seems as though the White House does not feel it can afford to take one single trading day off from sweating the tape to focus on other issues, as we...
24Sep2:20 pmEST
Make Me Beautiful, Natural Gas
Natural gas had quietly been on fire this week. In particular, given the focus elsewhere on rates, crude, diesel, and just about every other typical distraction in this cycle from Washington, AI, Iran, and the like, it is quite easy to see how even a ferocious move like this in natty could be overlooked or even outright ignored as irrelevant....
23Sep3:37 pmEST
I Didn't Put Nothin' Up!
As one of our astute Members, Stu, noted several times of late, gasoline could easily be leading crude higher here, even with tons of focus from the White House on diesel all of a sudden. And that gasoline leadership sure seems to be the case today, with the UGA ETF (for rolling gasoline prices nationwide), below on the daily chart, pushes to...
22Sep3:24 pmEST
Again
Despite a Fed rate hike last week, not to mention another one in play by the end of this calendar year, it is quite clear that we have a White House not only hell-bent on downplaying inflation but also outright flaming the fire to run it hotter than ever. As we have noted before, here and with Members, gold often flourishes in a scenario where...
21Sep3:08 pmEST
Houthis Don't Surf!
As we have noted since March, it is virtually impossible to successfully fight to win a war while also sweating every single tick across several markets. The latest version of this theory was put into praxis again this weekend, as President Trump reversed his own decision a few times regarding whether to help the Saudis fight the Houthis via...
17Sep3:12 pmEST
Chopped
As difficult as it is to believe and trade through on a daily basis, the Nasdaq has indeed gone entirely sideways for more than four months at this point, as illustrated by the Nasdaq-100 Index weekly chart, below. The bullish interpretation of this action is that we have corrected "through time," rather than through price, and that an...
16Sep11:25 amEST
Slow Playing It
With well over a 90% probability of The Fed hiking by 25bps later today, unless Kevin Warsh and the Committee intend to break an extensive pattern of following market expectations we can expect a higher Federal Funds rate by day's end. However, as we noted yesterday and in recent videos for Members, there is a distinct possibility that 25bps...
14Sep12:51 pmEST
A Big Round Number Fetish
Rates on the 10-Year Note popped above 5% for the first time in years this morning, in effect rivaling multi-decade highs, before reversing to red and dipping down to 4.94% as I write this. As we have noted here and with Members over the years, markets have an odd tendency to fetishize big, round numbers. Here, we are talking about 5.0% (or 50...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
