Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5474 total)
21Jan12:29 pmEST
Hedonistic Nihilism
Hedonism is the belief that pleasure is the most important thing in life, while nihilism is the belief that life has no meaning or value. A combination of the two is called hedonistic nihilism. Given the shenanigans of the meme coins ($TRUMP and $MELANIA coins, for example, not to mention the estimable $FART coin) over the long weekend now,...
16Jan3:51 pmEST
Satanic Black Magic Natural Gas
Natural gas bulls should knock on every piece of wood they see for the foreseeable future, as the commodity and its related equities stage impressive rallies which still seem to be overlooked by most. I view these rallies as "lockouts," which I will discuss in more depth for Members this evening in my usual full video for them. For now, after...
15Jan2:11 pmEST
It's Pretty; It's So Pretty
The market is clearly focusing more on CPI coming in cooler than expectations this morning, conveniently ignoring the year over year increase in inflation over the last four months. Or is it? While equities are surging, and the bond market is enjoying some relief as rates come down, gold, for example, is sporting an explosive-looking monthly...
14Jan12:49 pmEST
The Danger is No Joke
A cooler PPI print this morning initially ignited a rally in stocks. However, as I write this the rally faded to red, with tech giving up the ghost within the first hour or so of trading. Monsters like META and NVDA are notable laggards. Further, as we noted with Members in the Morning Prep Video, bonds never really got behind the idea that...
13Jan2:24 pmEST
An Undisputed Consensus Emerges
Without question, among bond market experts and general market pundits, there is a clear and unequivocal consensus brewing that if rates on the 10-Year Note touch near 5% again, as they did back around Halloween 2023, then it will mark a definitive top in rates just like it did back then. Naturally, I take the other side of that view, as I...
10Jan11:27 amEST
Live By the MAGS, Die By the MAGS
After forming a series of lower highs since mid-December, the Magnificent 7 ETF, first chart below on the daily timeframe, is breaching well-defined support this morning. The second chart, below, for reference is of the S&P 500 Index daily and also shows a support breakdown so far today, indicative of a head and shoulders bearish top...
08Jan1:19 pmEST
The Last Hurrah
The November through mid-December surge in retail stocks, seen below on the XRT sector ETF daily chart, certainly took me by surprise. As you can see, however, that rally has now been mostly erased. Further, long-term retail laggards like DG DLTR FL KSS NKE, among many others in the sector, continue to flounder. Overall, the XRT head and...
07Jan1:19 pmEST
Beating You to the Punch
With 2025 underway it is a good idea to look at post-election year seasonality. Courtesy of @AlmanacTrader on X, below, we can see the 1949-2023 data set for all post-election year patterns in the S&P 500 Index. Clearly, the black and red lines are most relevant, with the incumbent party losing. As you can see February is a uniquely weak...
06Jan12:20 pmEST
I am a Nuclear Landman
Natural gas and nuclear are red-hot not just today but also of late, overall. We have been focused on these two groups, both the commodity and underlying stocks, with Members. And now we have the nuclear reactor plays flashing strong signs of staging fresh legs higher, be it GEV NNE OKLO SMR, just to name a few. Meanwhile, natural gas is...
02Jan1:13 pmEST
Pick a Side, Any Side
If the first trading session of 2025, so far, is any indication of what is to come this year we are in for a doozy of a tape. As of this early-afternoon, we have seen a plethora of whipsaws, squeezes, fades, before the market finally sold off aggressively during the New York lunch hour. Granted, we are still technically within the "Santa Rally"...
30Dec2:08 pmEST
A Forever Home on the Range
It has been tough for me to be steadfastly bullish on much within equities for a good while, given the bifurcation of the asset classes containing many classical elements of a mania. However, we have been consistently bullish in recent quarters on the prospects of natural gas and nuclear names emerging. The key point there is that both of these...
26Dec1:27 pmEST
If I Told You This, Would You Believe Me?
September 16th, 2024. That is the last time that shares of Reddit, seen below on the updated daily chart, tested their 20-day simple moving average (orange line). The 20-day moving average is a short-term reference point for swing readers. As an example, NVIDIA has not tested its 200-day moving average since January 2023, but the 200-day is...
23Dec3:38 pmEST
Don't Forget About the Comstock Loads
Slow session today to kick off the next two weeks of abbreviated holiday trading. Wirth Christmas Day and New Year's Day both falling on each of the next two Wednesdays, right smack in the middle of the week, it would not surprise me to see most market players call it a year. For those hanging around, natural gas has quietly been improving,...
19Dec1:15 pmEST
The Immortal Bull Market
No, I am not referring to equities as the "immortal bull market." Instead, I am referring to the forty-plus year bull run in Treasuries, with rates falling since the early-1980s up until the pandemic. As you might imagine, that length of the bull run in the bond market lulled several generations of investors to sleep, even seasoned market...
18Dec3:42 pmEST
The Great Repricing
Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...
17Dec2:41 pmEST
Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP
Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback. However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...
16Dec12:53 pmEST
Because it is All So Hysterical
In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
