Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5546 total)
02Jun1:16 pmEST
Silver Shambala
One would almost need to be a Buddhist monk in the kingdom of Shambala to fully appreciate just how out of favor precious metals and miners have been, overall, with both retail and institutions for years on end despite every macro reason to be bullish. Alas, we must deal with the market here in the real word. And even though gold has been...
29May2:28 pmEST
Trade War Heretic
Last evening's fast and furious spike in the futures had bears bellowing about just how impossible and pointless it was to short this market, which seemingly finds any and all reasons to reverse back higher into even the slightest of dips. Indeed, the combination of NVDA up after earnings and then the headline that a U.S. trade court ruled...
28May3:15 pmEST
It's Taco Wednesday!
As I suspected, and have discussed both here and with Members, we are starting to see some pushback against the President for his constant reversals on trade policies. In fact, Trump himself was questioned about it today by a reporter in the Oval Office . Specifically, "TACO" has become the acronym du jour, standing for, "Trump Always...
27May11:48 amEST
Trumpy Bear Gets a Squeeze
The seemingly endless headline-driven pops and drops related to tariffs and trade wars continue today, as the President announced on Sunday evening that he would be delaying his EU 50% tariffs for about five and a half weeks from the original June 1st target date. At some point, and it may already be slowly starting to happen, the market will...
22May12:48 pmEST
A Sector Full of Sinners
A value trap is a stock or other investment that appears attractively priced because it has been trading at low valuation metrics, such as price to earnings (P/E), price to cash flow (P/CF), or price to book value (P/B) for an extended period. A value trap persuades investors because the trade appears inexpensive relative to historical...
20May2:11 pmEST
Cutting it High and Tight
We have another slow-moving, mixed tape today as the holiday weekend approaches. Bearish seasonal forces are beginning to emerge, likely competing against the constant retail buying spree into any and all micro dips. The news flow is not disastrous, but it does not seem to inspire a sustained move higher either. Hence, the grinding action. ...
19May1:26 pmEST
A Few Tough Looks
Equities are mostly shrugging off the Moody's downgrade into the afternoon portion of this session, as the initial morning selloff petered out in a familiar way. Specifically, retail dip-buyers continue to ride their "heater" since early-April, using any and all dips as spots to reload longs. The issue, of course, is whether that retail surge...
15May11:38 amEST
Everyone Loves a Comeback, Except This One
It is worth doing another update on AT&T, as the quarterly chart, below, shows the stock threatening a multi-decade breakout from the well-defined resistance trend-line I have drawn. AT&T yields just over 4% now, not quite the monstrosity of a dividend it had when we turned bullish on the name in May 2022 inside the VIP segment (where we focus...
13May2:42 pmEST
Inflation Bombs Away
Despite a cool CPI print this morning we have rates on the long end of the curve soundly higher. As I write this rates on the 10-Year Note are pushing over 4.5%. And, as we noted yesterday, a move to 5% still seems likely in the coming months. Given that this morning's inflation beat (or miss, depending on how you phrase it, either way a cool...
12May1:26 pmEST
There Still Ain't No Free Lunch
Equities may very well be reading into the U.S./China temporary tariff cuts as avoiding stagflation, at least for the time being. However, this reaction has all the makings of a knee-jerk emotional one which will see sobering effects in due time, likely within a week or two. Specifically, you may notice that rates are pushing higher again,...
08May10:38 amEST
Top Two Pair
As oil tries to sustain a relief rally alongside oil-related stocks, note that the two best performers in the OIH (ETF for the beaten-down oil services stocks) have consistently been RIG snd VAL, respectively below on their daily charts, over the last week or so. These are still high on my radar due to their short squeeze potential, at a...
06May2:50 pmEST
It's Easy to Forget
Equities staged an intraday fade of an initial bounce off headlines that Trump teased imminent trade deals, which may be an early sign of fatigue on the part of the market regarding the nonstop conjecture around the various tariffs we have seen for a good while now. As they say, there is only so much tread on a tire. In addition, Nick Timiraos...
05May2:42 pmEST
You're in the Wrong Town
Equities are lethargic and mixed, overall, in front of both HIMS PLTR earnings this evening (two of the more prominent growth plays of late) and then the FOMC on Wednesday. However, you will note rates on the long end of the curve pushing higher yet. With the Trump Tax Bill pending, meaning that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed that...
04May11:37 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/04/25 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
01May1:45 pmEST
Don't Get High on Your Own Overhead Supply
Microsoft is surging more than 8% today, a sizable move for a name as large as it is in terms of market cap. For several quarters now we have profiled the relative and absolute weakness in MSFT, to the point where bulls ignored the name, essentially, during the winter months in favor of whatever was working at the time. However, at a certain...
30Apr12:12 pmEST
Claws Versus Horns
Courtesy of the Modern Wealth Management website , the below chart is instructive insofar as putting in to perspective just what a bear market rally actually looks like and how long it can last. I define an ongoing bear market as the major indices primarily operating below a declining 200-day moving average, with attempts to regain the...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
