Trading Ideas

Showing articles 1 - 20 (4790 total)

24May11:28 amEST

Snap Snaps Off, Reminiscent of Ancient Greece

Towards the end of the Ancient Greek civilization, after Alexander the Great's empire in 323 B.C. until the utter defeat at the hands of the Romans in the Battle of Corinth in 146 B.C., the Ancient Greeks saw increasing participation in theatre. It seemed as though everyone wanted to be a performer all of a sudden which, perhaps, was a symptom...

23May11:06 amEST

Hey, Hey, We're the Monkeypox Plays

On second thought, while you can always try to scalp the likes of INO SIGA or a bunch of other Monkeypox plays in this week leading up to a major holiday one week from today, I would rather focus on a more constructive chart with a macro story I find more compelling.  Natural gas, of course used for air conditioning homes in coming summer...

22May10:04 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/22/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

20May8:25 amEST

Here's the Last Inflationary Bear Market We Had

I know it is a Friday in late-May, with summer ahead of us after a grueling winter. So, you will pardon my sobering update here. But I do believe it to be quite instructive.  The last time this country saw a protracted inflationary bear market was from 1966-1982. While it is certainly true that there are various differences between now and...

19May3:40 pmEST

They're Trying to Mask it From You

While ARKK and many downtrodden growth stocks catch a bid today we have shares of AAPL (below on daily chart) hitting their lowest levels since July 2021. With a $2.22 trillion market cap, and the trifecta of ETF component weightings (DIA QQQ, and SPY), Apple is as serious as serious gets for this market. We know Buffett is still in the name,...

19May10:09 amEST

Oh, Have Another One!

I know I am dating myself with  Toll Booth Willie references (about thirty years ago at this point). However, it is worth driving home the point that the transportation stocks, which got many bulls quite giddy as summer approaches regarding pent-up demand for travel and general post-COVID animal spirits, have actually gone in the other...

18May3:05 pmEST

Cash First, Ask Questions Later

With many key spots in the market, be it with the Dow (on the DIA ETF daily chart, below) or any number of prominent stocks, giving up multiple sessions worth of gains all at once today, I elected to move back to full cash with Members a few hours ago.  With the exception of a recent ag long I took on late yesterday, I was able to escape with a...

18May10:25 amEST

That's an Excellent Question, Mr. Lombardi

Shares of Target are getting eviscerated after earnings, to the point where no one even bothers to make the Americana joke of "Target or Tar-Jay" with regard to the retailer's pronunciation.  Some broad market jitters off the TGT pounding is not too surprising, though.  However, what is surprising is the action below the surface thus far today....

17May4:23 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 05/17/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

17May10:22 amEST

The Next Maneuver

Tech and bios are among the leaders of this morning's bounce, as the conventional wisdom that this is a mere "bear market rally" seem to be rather dismissive or skeptical of the move. Granted, I myself believe this is a bear market rally. However, I suspect a few more weeks of this type of action, sandwiching Memorial Day Weekend, will shift...

16May10:55 amEST

You Don't Have to Be a Private Eye to Figure it Out

Energy and agricultural products continue to rise this morning despite a mostly red opening for stocks as a group, as The Fed talking heads keep resting their hopes that inflation will magically recede to make their lives easier.  In reality, as The Fed willingly stays miles behind the curve headed into summer, where oil and gasoline demand...

15May10:01 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/15/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

13May10:01 amEST

A Series of Battles

Bear markets often feature a series of battles, even relatively shorter-term duration ones like 2008. We had bear market rallies from March-May 2008, then a pedestrian one over the summer, and even around the time Lehman failed and TARP was passed in September we had ridiculous, convincing squeezes which shocked and scared even the most...

12May11:29 amEST

The First Mover Fallacy in Game Theory

In 1923, Jesse Livermore wrote, “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth---or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” These eighths have cost traders billions of dollars over the years. Over the years, this is a lesson I have tried to learn over and...

11May2:56 pmEST

Reminder: It's a Bear Market, Which Means We Tend to Make New Lows

Part of the nefarious nature of bonafide bear markets (as defined by price below a declining 200-day moving average on the major indices for an extended duration , not the short-lived COVID crash which came and went in a matter of weeks) coming off an extended period of rampant speculative bull market fervor is that they lull even smart,...

11May10:30 amEST

And After All That...

By now, you know about ARKK, earnings blow-ups like U and UPST, inflation, even the Tiger Fund, as do most active market players.  And what we are left with at the moment is some of the most violent price swings you will see even in a bear market, at least one which is not outright crashing. No, instead, we have an epic battle in progress, as...

10May10:10 amEST

Lay of the Land

The major indices are recovering most or all of yesterday's drubbing after an overnight squeeze in the futures market. We will hear from President Biden later this morning on the hot button topic of inflation, which should be a market sensitive event leading up to tomorrow morning's CPI print. I am going to guess his speech writers will have...

09May2:38 pmEST

Not Every Safe Stock is Safe Here

With a Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio now over 3 (anything over 1 tends to turn off value investors), a forward PE in the 20s, and a multi-year chart which is as steep as the quarterly PEP seen below, you would be hard-pressed to make a sound case right now that Pepsico represents compelling value.  Instead, the more likely bull case is that...

09May10:38 amEST

You Fell Victim to One of the Classic Blunders

Bear markets are notorious, in their relatively early stages, for creating a narrative as to why a certain bearish outcome simply cannot happen. Many market payers, due to prior conditioning of the bull market (especially this one) assume the former glory leaders like the "FAANG" gang will roar back to new highs as inflation recedes and growth...

07May10:51 amEST

It's OK to Be Wrong; It's Not OK to Stay Wrong

Cathie Wood said as recently as last week  that her greatest fear right now is that her flailing stock holdings in the the ARKK funds would get bought out at (what she perceives) low prices.  Retail investors continued to pour money into markets  as recently as Thursday  despite the wild price swings and lack of progress buyers have been...

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