Tempted By the Forbidden Fruit

Going after the falling knife that is crude oil remains a tough trade, as USO was mildly green this morning and is now back to being down more than 1%. While I am tempted to go long UCO or even UWTI as levered-long crude ETFs, the daily chart for the USO (straight-up crude oil ETF) shows a steep but orderly decline lower. Typically, some type of change in angle of descent is preferred as a sign that the selling is becoming emotional and is close to some type of cathartic washout. While crude is too beaten-down for me to short it here, it also has not yet featured that wipeout, as the white line I have drawn would likely do. In addition, with so many eyes now on crude, people who never who both to pay attention, it makes bottom-fishing the black gold all the more suspect. Thus, for now, I am flat crude and focusing on the metals and miners, not to mention the consolidation in coffee this week, and perhaps natural gas again if it can hold a bounce.