An Objective Market Look in the Dead of Winter

After scaling down my short exposure this morning and locking in hard-fought gains, the market is bouncing into the afternoon portion of the session. The hourly chart of the SPY, ETF for the S&P 500 Index, presented below, shows that buyers were willing to step in again at well-defined support (horizontal light blue line at bottom). However, the issue is whether we are seeing just another spirited, exuberant, but ultimately short-lived bounce before we roll back over and break those lows. I suspect if we do rollover here it will start to finally compel longs to panic a bit, as they would not have the comfort of their usual V-shape recovery back to the highs. As it stands, I am long BIS and SOXS. I locked in part of SOXS this morning for a nice win and am down less than 1% on BIS at the moment. I day-trade a TVIX long earlier on Stocktwits for a small win, and took profits in the rest of my SDS long earlier today (see prior blog posts) when price came down to support. AMZN earnings are tonight, which could impact the Nasdaq as well. On my radar into the final hour: GDX is staging a good bounce off support, thus far.