Back in a Tough Trade; Chess Moves

There is no way to sugarcoat it: Going long natural gas has been an extraordinary tough trade since Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, with crude rallying off recent lows and commodities in general attempting to show signs of life amid a U.S. Dollar currently in consolidation mode I am taking a shot at a long UGAZ play. Specifically, I went long UGAZ, the triple-long ETF, at $2.58 (announced in real-time on social media not too long ago) with a protective stop-loss below $2.47, playing for a snapback rally in natural gas. The natty inventory report is out of the way, and the UNG (straight-up natural gas ETF) is showing some short-term signs of seller exhaustion, seen on the 30-minute chart below--Note the shadows on the bottom of those large price candlesticks. As always, discipline is going to be paramount with these levered ETFs.