Dawn of a New Day for Commodities

Although there may very well be a strong temptation to catch the proverbial "falling knife" here in crude oil's waterfall decline, it is worth noting that when multi-month consolidations in the context of bear markets (defined by declining longer-term daily chart moving averages) resolve lower, it can lead to an abrupt and violent decline to fresh lows, effectively trapping in longs who had previously assumed a bottom and not allowing eager shorts a sound entry. 

As such, there is a viable risk that crude now makes or retests recent lows this summer, printed over the winter months. 

But beyond crude, the squishy natural gas and its gapping action, and the metals' glaring underperformance, the soft commodities continue to quietly improve. 

While coffee has been disappointing, corn and wheat, along with cocoa, have impressed.

I view WEAT, keying off the ETN's daily chart, below, as possible offering a quality long entry this week if we see price push over $12, up and out of the highlighted "bull flag" pattern. This action, if true, would cement an initial higher low off recent lows, a sure step in the right direction for bulls.