Apple Setting Up for a Big Fall Harvest

Although we are only one month into the third quarter of trading, the quarterly timeframe of Apple, below, offers good perspective on how important this price action is in a long-term context. 

Specifically, AAPL printing two consecutive potential topping candlestick each of the last two quarters this year, denoted by the long shadows on the top of each candle. Note how this circumstance occurred after an established uptrend at overbought conditions (outside the upper quarterly chart Bollinger Band). 

In other words, the potential quarterly topping candles met the elements you would want to see for a major reversal in trend, from bull-to-bear. And then, of course, comes the big issue of downside confirmation. 

Thus far, we are seeing strong downside confirmation of the topping candles, with two months to go for bulls to salvage the relatively (on this timeframe) shallow pullback after a multi-year advance. I suspect a failure to recapture $122 on a quarterly closing basis will keep the initiative with the bears until late-September when the candlestick will have been fully harvested. 

Also note that the last time Apple tested its 20-period quarterly moving average (orange line, currently at $80.51 and rising) was back in March 2009, arguably the beginning of the current bull run (or October 2011 depending on your definition). 

Either way, it has been a long time.