Baby Jumps in Crude Oil

While this morning's price action in crude oil is no doubt a reprieve for bulls holding from higher prices in fishing out the bottom to a steep bear market, the ETF's declining 50-day moving average (dark blue line on daily chart, below) is providing initial resistance, for example.

Beyond ETF analysis, though, is the notion that commodities could easily be cleaning out shorts before the Fed tomorrow, before further volatility or another leg lower ensues. Thus, the added risk of playing the inflation vs. deflation game is even higher in the current context. 

That said, the XLE (energy sector ETF) is holding over its 20-day simple moving average at the moment, a feat not seen, incredibly, in several months, which drives home just how steep of a downtrend it has been and how many buried longs there may be. 

The competing forces of an overdue snapback rally in commodities versus likely overhead supply/interested-sellers-into-pops probably continues to keep a lid on the action, a Fed surprise notwithstanding.