Natural Gas: Hey Stifler, How's the Pale Ale Taste?

When it comes to natural gas, we know the commodity has been mired in a bear market for years now. 

Nonetheless, bear markets often feature some profitable snapback rally opportunities, usually because of the spirited, violent, squeezing (albeit short-lived) nature of the counter-trend. Indeed, this was the case in 2013 and 2014, even the first few months of this year.

However, natural gas has been largely not worth the hassle on the long side--even for one/two day bounces--in recent quarters, perhaps portending the final, capitulatory phase of this bear market.

With this in mind, in order to seriously consider a bottom-fishing long I would favor a further washout from here, if only a day or two, as the ETF daily chart is now below its lower Bollinger Band (oversold) and the angle of descent is beginning to point straight down. 

When price starts to see the bottom fall out like that, it typically means buyers are waving the white flag once and for all and we may be close to that elusive tradable rally, if not an outright bottom. 

Put another way: Natural gas likely needs to become more ill before it heals.