Just a Bastard from a Basket of Commodities

We are quickly approaching that moment where crude bulls needs to put up or fold up and go home. 

On the 30-minute USO ETF chart, below, we can see oil buyers trying to step in over the last few moments. In light of the fairly sound downtrend, reversals should be something we keep an open mind to, but not necessarily a high probability to anticipate (just as bulls buying crude all the way down in 2015). Moreover, we know crude is just one part of a basket of commodes getting dinged again today, including copper and energy/materials names like AA FCX SUNE. 

But if buyers can pounce here, it should stem the tide, short-term, in equities as well, given the intimate correlation between, say, the IWM small caps and USO we have seen of late. 

Overall, markets remain in high risk territories for both sides of the trade. The longer it takes to develop some type of snapback rally, the higher the odds of a crash, historically. 

We are still keying off QQQ holding over $104, as well, which should also keep bears contained in the short-term.