Surviving the Winter

After several opportunities for bears, the Euro has failed to break lower in an ongoing bear market. Instead, we have seen a ferocious short squeeze higher, perhaps indicating the "pain trade" in what had been a crowded thesis. For my money, the Euro never triggered a fresh short entry, rendering me an interested spectator. 

To update the big picture the Euro vs. Dollar currency cross is now giving the look of a potentially massive base bottom to conclude a bear market. This bottom has not yet been confirmed.

But holding over 1.11 may very well put the parity thesis on the back-burner for a good while. 

And considering all of the jawboning and drastic measures by the Central Bankers this winter, it is impressive to see the Euro remain as resilient as it has to at least survive the season. However, a move back under 1.08 would likely galvanize bears again. 

Regarding the inter-play between currencies and other markets, namely materials/commodities, I will flesh that out in more depth for Members in my usual Midday Video now.