Close Enough for the Mile High Club

It has been an impressive few years for the airline industry at-large, staging a comeback and sustained rally after many had considered the space the epitome of dead money.

But the majors, like AAL DAL UAL, all sought to improve their business models and keep up with the times, even if the flying experience is more of an undignified hassle than anything else. And we know the regionals have done brilliantly, too, as well as ALK HA JBLU LUV VA. 

American Airlines did not quite retest its prior highs ten years ago. But as we can see on the monthly chart, below, it is close enough to its foray back into the Mile High Club that it is good enough to see some overhead supply kick. in. 

At issue now is whether AAL has topped out. The highlighted topping pattern would seem to suggest so, and the weakness in DAL UAL is not helping the cause, either. 

Airlines were actually a true bright spot for the IYT when rails, well, fell off the rails last year. But I suspect within transports some reversion took place of late, with UNP catching a bit right as the major airlines succumbed to selling. 

Zooming out to the big picture, if bulls lose FDX and UPS, the two major air couriers, then the IYT could easily head down to retest its February lows after rallying for most of the winter and spring months.