29Jun10:54 amEST

Look But Don't Touch

As tempting as it may be to try to time a rollover in the market after the post-Brexit bounce, observing the QQQ hourly chart, below, we can see there is some room to move up to just below $106.40 before one would get more serious about potential supply.

Even then, there is the prospect of the long, patriotic holiday summer weekend, end of month/end of quarter window dressing, all of which can be short-term headwinds for shorts foaming at the mouth to reenact the limit down panic last Thursday night in the futures. 

And, of course, there is always the possibility of a V-shaped rally to new highs in a few weeks, which would surely send many a bear into permanent hibernation at this point. 

The NKE reversal higher from last evening's post-EPS selling may be a clue, too. Nike had actually gone nearly straight down since its March earnings report, and a respite into the Fourth of July weekend seems reasonable, if only to eventually set up a better short later in the summer. But that does not offer much consolation to bears pressing right here, right now. 

So the idea is to look for more concrete signs of the bounce losing steam before stepping in front of what could easily be a counter-trend and ultimately doomed rally. 

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