All Eyes on France, Again

With plenty of U.S. data and events out of the way this now, including The Fed, major earnings, and this morning's jobs number, attention shifts back to France for the run-off election to determine the next leader of the county. 

Given that the VIX (volatility index as measured by fear in the options market) is low and flirting with going into single digits, it is hard to argue that market players are nervous or hedged up into the French run-off. Equity bears will argue this circumstance amounts to complacency by bulls in stocks, but that argument has been a shaky one of late, in terms of proving true and seeing those complacent bulls actually get punished for anything more than perhaps a brief morning gap down. 

Still, I am inclined to reduce risk here. Upside momentum in the tape has been flimsy in recent sessions, and those small caps in the Russell 2000 Index are still lagging. 

On a more positive note, the SHAK upside reversal after earnings has me back in the camp of keeping an eye on HABT for a long, as another burger point turning things around for the better this year. 

There is, also, an intriguing inter-market setup still very much in play, possibly as a corollary to the French election, which I will update for Members now. 

Overall, though, bulls may be tempting fate one too many times by assuming this weekend's news out of France will be yet another nonevent for stocks.