12May10:29 amEST

A Cold Chart from the Cold War

An interesting development among the emerging markets is taking place, with commodity-sensitive Brazil breaking out while petro-sensitive Russia lingers. China is also enjoying a a good couple of weeks, while India has quietly been a dominant force throughout 2017. 

Thus, the Russia weakness stands out as noteworthy. 

On the RSX country ETF daily chart, below, we can see the churning action dating back to February amounts to a symmetrical triangle pattern (light blue lines), with higher lows offset by lower highs. And this morning's weakness magnifies the relative weakness, with a move down below $20 now threatening to resolve the triangle lower while other emerging markets in the BRIC acronym are moving to multi-week highs. 

Clearly, the double-whamy of geopolitics plus persistent weakness in energy markets is not helping the cause for Russia bulls. RUSS is the triple-bearish ETF to keep in mind for traders looking to press a breakdown. 

Ultimately, if the rest of the BRICs sustain a rotation this summer, it may be enough to prevent Russia from losing too much more ground.

But either way, Brazil and China are on the cusp of following India's lead higher and look far more viable on the long side. 

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