Bitcoin Has 91 Problems But a Split Ain't One

After a run-of-the-mill 91-for-1 stock split took effect on Monday for the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC, below on the its daily timeframe), an initial bounce ensued. 

However, that bounce is obviously long gone, as GBTC threatens to break down from what initially appeared to be a fairly standard consolidation pattern, highlighted in light blue. 

Indeed, what may very well be at play here is the longer-term Bitcoin parabolic run-up. If that is the case, then near-term patterns like the one below are substantially outweighed by the parabola unwinding, meaning the next leg down could be a nasty one for crypto players. 

On some level, we are in unchartered waters with crypto, with strong bull arguments making at least a colorable case for long-term viability. 

But the main issue which the most steadfast crypto bulls seem to be conveniently ignoring is that this is still a market dynamic where future growth can be discounted. In other words, the Bitcoin market can easily reach out over the next quarters and even years, discounting future growth of crypto. 

And that would be the best lesson from the dot-com bubble, more than anything else. Not the percentage of households which owned internet stocks back then compared to the few who own crypto now--Only the market can tell us when the intermediate-term bullish theme has been adequately priced in.