15May12:43 pmEST

The Bonfire of the Federal Reserve's Vanities

As bond prices naturally move inversely to yields, the $117 level on the TLT (ETF for Treasuries, updated below on the weekly timeframe) coincides with 3% rates on the 10-Year Note. 

You will observe that the $117 level is as well-defined as can be. And bond bulls had better make the ultimate stick save here to stave of another spike in rates. 

To clarify an ongoing issue, equities are often seen as the, shall we say, less intelligent younger sibling of the fixed income markets. The stereotype is that stocks are always the last market to "get it," when trouble arises, which means it can take several months or even quarters after a spike in rates for markets to truly become rattled by the new regime. 

Of course, equity bulls will counter that higher rates need not necessarily mean a recession or even anything that bad is on the horizon, especially if the economy is strong enough to handle higher rates. 

Bears will counter that the rate of the rates spiking higher is key, and that what we are seeing now marks the early stages of the bond market pushing back against the Fed's policies for the last decade or so. 

As you can see, the point/counter-point game will continue until we have a better idea of 1) How fast and far rates spike this time around (if at all beyond today), and 2) If and when equities truly react to higher rates. 

In the meantime, the energy/material/commodity complex generally fares well with higher rates, as do banks, while REITs/utilities/staples/homebuilders come under some pressure. 

Not Thinking in Linear Terms Stock Market Recap 05/15/18 ...


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