Look This Black Swan in the Eye

While we know Apple, GE, crude oil, and small caps have all had their issues in recent weeks, the price action in the banking sectors, gauging the KRE and XLF ETFs, has been most alarming. 

Prominent and even iconic global banking houses like DB GS MS have seen their stocks get pummeled with no mercy shown by the market for most of this correction. 

On the XLF daily chart, below, we simply must keep closely monitoring this group to discern whether a rally into Christmas and New Year's is even viable this year. A bullish interpretation of the chart (arrows) is that the last two sessions have amounted to a bullish "tweezer bottom" formation, which obviously needs upside confirmation in the coming days in order to have a chance. 

Could some of these banks be portending a rare but ominous "Black Swan" event coming? The answer is perhaps, yes. But the better giveaway regarding just how realistic that scenario may not be so much the weakness we have seen heretofore, but rather whether they are able to get off the mat for a rudimentary Christmas bounce at all.