20Feb3:50 pmEST

A Desert Mirage or the Real Deal?

It remains to be seen if bulls can sustain the current rotation into the industrial/materials/energy/commodities complex, not unlike what we saw for a long stretch of time in 2007/2008 before it all came crashing down due to the initial inflationary head-fake followed by the well-known deflationary crash. 

Many people seem to forget about that inflationary head-fake, however. Again, that lasted quite a long period of time, well into 2009. And even now, with electric car stocks getting hot money today, such as KNDI, there are shades of that rotation with alternative energy plays getting bid. 

But going back to basics, the meat-and-potatoes trades would be in the industrials, ags, steels, miners (both precious and non-precious like CLF), as well as energy stocks. 

On that note, the OIH is notably outperforming the XLE names. OIH houses the oil services plays, with larger names like HAL NOV SLB ones to watch. 

However, a smaller name like Newpark Resources is attractive insofar as regaining its 200-day moving average something its big brothers like HAL SLB have a long way to go before they can make the same claim. Note NR's tight base back above all moving averages. 

I recognize this rotation scenario may be frustrating to bears. They are looking for this move to be more of a desert mirage than the real deal. But the broad-based participation by the industrial/materials/energy/commodities complex is too impressive of late for me not to probe a few longs. 

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