Safe to Leave the Coast or Not

As tempting as it may be to buy into this morning's rally in equities, the nagging strength in Treasuries is giving us pause. On the TLT daily chart, updated below, note the potential for a fresh breakout here from the highlighted high and tight base consolidation after the prior rally earlier this month which coincided with some violently choppy action in equities. 

While it is certainly true that equities are capable of detaching from the fight to safety into Treasuries and can overcome any perceived fear trade to break free of this summer choppy range to move higher, I am in the camp of preferring to see some more signs of bulls building a rally first, for more than a day or two, before embracing that thesis with arms wide open. Seeing software names like PLAN flop around from red to green, now back to red, only reinforces the chop thesis, mind you, even if other software standouts like AVLR MDB TEAM impressive with their resilience. 

At the moment, the precious miners are bit more attractive with respect to their consistent strength of late--Each time the U.S. Dollar has bounced it seems as though gold bears have missed a chance to wreak havoc on the various precious mining charts and their much-improved technicals this summer. In and of itself, that seems like a pretty bullish sign for the sector headed into autumn. I will be discussing this topic for Members in the coming days and weeks as we have our eyes on some of the tighter, cleaner mining charts for fresh longs.