24Mar11:18 amEST

At the Behest of All Things Fed

Whether it is the Federal Reserve or the federal government, with various municipal and state's rights/power sprinkled in along the way, this market is clearly at the behest of all those powers as are we, individually. It is not a particularly normal thing for any of us in America. But as long as the virus is a clear and present danger we are likely to see markets remain ultra-sensitive to anything uttered by the White House, a prominent member of Congress, or by any of the Fed-heads. 

Thus, with the President indicating last night that this quarantine/lockdown is likely to end in a matter of weeks instead of months, combined with the market's expectation for an imminent stimulus deal reached for a Bill in the Senate, stocks are snapping back higher this morning. The elevated VIX means that we can just as easily see an improbable relief rally for a few days which punishes overeager shorts who either failed to cover out of hubris or initiated their shorts "in the hole" yesterday, as we could give up the entirety of this rally should the Senate succumb to partisanship and fail to pass a relief Bill. 

In the meantime, with recent winners like TDOC and ZM seeing profit-taking today you can plainly see the various short-covering and oversold bounces in names like AAL BA CCL NCLH RCL. Whether this is a durable bottom is anyone's guess--Recall that the indices still need to string together two winning consecutive sessions first before we can even entertain the notion of a long-term bottom. 

Beyond those names squeezing hard, I am looking for special situations where this emotional market may have lost focus.

Two examples: MDLZ is a snack food maker with some iconic brands. They are clearly doing very well during the quarantine and should be higher. TEAM is a software growth leader which held up relatively well to peers. It is now back above its 200-day moving average. 

Stock Market Recap 03/23/20 ... Stock Market Recap 03/24/20 ...

 
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