U-V-X-Y: You Ain't Got No Alibi!

With political gamesmanship and posturing taking hold in D.C. surrounding the latest round of Stimulus measures for Americans, markets are limping towards the closing bell today as this morning's Russia vaccine play fades under the scrutiny of its veracity. 

One gets the sense that a sleepy summer VIX is ripe to wake up from what has been roughly a five-month slumber, despite the fact that the VIX never lost 20, which is often seen as a dividing line between a correcting and steady-uptrend bullish equity market. Indeed, VIX ETFs like VXX and UVXY have essentially gone on spring and summer vacation up until this moment. But as rates spike and some doubt creeps back in regarding the next round of government assistance, the stage seems set to get at least some volatility back into markets just in time for seasonality to assert itself. 

As for the precious complex selloff today, I view $37.50 on the GDX ETF, below on it weekly chart, as the first area I am gauging the general strength of buyers. While I see many flying in to buy today's dip, my sense is that we get some near-term pain to remind newcomer gold bugs that they are dealing with a high beta, uniquely volatile space, at times rivaling that of the crypto space, or even exceeding it.