15Oct12:56 pmEST

People Used to Ask Each Other for Gas Money

The 1970s were essentially fifty years ago at this point, which means that the phenomenon of gas lines as well as the inflation at-large of that era are lost on most today. In fact, the monster hiding under the bed for a few decades now has been the deflationary bust scenario, more than anything else. As a minor, seemingly trivial bit of anecdotal evidence, growing up in the 1980s I remember it was fairly common practice for someone to ask to be compensated for gas money if requested to travel somewhere (even not that far). Compare that to the last few decades, where asking for gas money in most social or professional situations is seen as a laughably cheap faux pas or just plain weird. 

But as we have been noting both here and with Members, The Fed and, indeed, those who are defiantly on "Team Transitory" are fighting yesterday's battles. 

The battle of the here and now, at least in our view, is the threat of inflation already underway with The Fed having missed its window for a reasonable tapering schedule to eventually lead to a liftoff of rate hikes.

In all likelihood, if oil accelerates above this $80 level on WTI, The Fed will eventually have to blink and commingle its tapering and rate hike schedule sooner than later, possibly this January or February. 

Stocks are largely unaffected at this point, but they are usually the last to get the message anyway. So long as inflation remains the threat, I have my eye on more commodity plays going forward, such as coals, and oil names like RIG. Gold is getting hit on strong retail sales figures (and the Bitcoin ETF hype), but gold miners in the GDX are exuding good relative strength so far. 

People used to ask each other for gas money. But my sense is that in the not too distant future they will, once again. 

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