17May10:22 amEST

The Next Maneuver

Tech and bios are among the leaders of this morning's bounce, as the conventional wisdom that this is a mere "bear market rally" seem to be rather dismissive or skeptical of the move. Granted, I myself believe this is a bear market rally. However, I suspect a few more weeks of this type of action, sandwiching Memorial Day Weekend, will shift sentiment back towards the "new bull market" camp. 

Besides, my focus continue to be on energy and ags, as they represent the best overall charts I am seeing on the board. 

And as bullish as the crude oil chart itself looks these days, I have to wonder if a replay of the summer 2008 is in store where we find the absolute tipping point for the consumer by probing the highest possible gasoline and oil prices before this whole thing is said and done. Under that scenario, I expect more and more commodity and materials stocks to get with the program, as a good many have been lagging lately. Those include steels, FCX, uranium, heck, even solars. 

And then there are the shippers and tankers. Diana, below on her daily chart, is a prime example of the sort of quality setup which ought to be triggering soon if oil is about to embark on a meaningful leg higher.

The crude oil traders in the cycle have also revealed themselves to be a kind of de facto bond vigilante again this Fed, and I would not rule out a further Fed squeeze as Powell and Bullard attempt to merely talk down inflation without really getting their hands dirty with epic rate hikes and aggressive QT.  

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