31Aug2:41 pmEST

Off the Record, on the QT, and Very Hush Hush

Let us clear something up right now so there is no confusion: To say that The Fed's quantitative tightening program ramping up in September is the genesis for a new bull market "wall of worry" is misguided, at best, if not downright pie in the sky wishful thinking from a prior stock market era. 

Exhibit A: Kevin Muir's piece on Bloomberg.com right now (full piece click here).

Title: The Fed Is About to Go Full Throttle on QT. Fear Not.

Sub-Header: Quantitative easing clearly boosted financial assets. But it would be a mistake to think that $95 billion of quantitative tightening every month would have the opposite effect.  

If there were truly too much fear out there, as some contend, it is likely that the VIX would be over 40 (at least 30), social media finance would be seeing rapid-fire tweets nonstop, even financial news TV would feature guests genuinely panicked and "CNBC specials" about how to manage a crisis. 

However, we are seeing none of this things, at least not yet. Yes, it is still summer. 

But with Bloomberg pieces advocating the view that QT is no big deal, it is just another cog in the slope of hope construct. 

Furthermore, and this is purely anecdotal, I have been trolled more on Stocktwits and Twitter of late for my charts and posts than at any time this year previously by bulls who seem to be on tilt. Mind you, it is no skin off my back--Dealing with trolls of all kinds (a troll is a troll is a troll, regardless of who they are, who they think they are, or how many followers they may have) is something I became used to a long time ago--Either ignoring or blocking them is the best strategy nine times out of ten. 

The main point is that we are headed into the monetary frontier tomorrow, as the aggressive QT is something markets will need to process in real-time and is not something they are particularly experienced at doing.

This is all happening with vulnerable technicals on the indices, a lack of leadership, complacent sentiment, a hawkish Fed, a likely major drop-off in the consumer after summer and back-to-school spending, not to mention home prices finally rolling over.

As usual, everyone is keying off the jobs market with the jobs repot on Friday. And, as usual, the jobs market will be one of the very last shoes to drop and the epitome of a lagging indicator.  

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