Picture It: Wall Street, 1937

Unlike some other folks I do not pretend to know every micro move of the market--Calling every little single top and bottom, sometimes intraday, and then going radio silent when said call does not pan out. Instead, you get me here every day working through markets in real-time with real money. 

Thus, we would be remiss not to point out the 1937 bear market, seen below, not just because it is convenient "bear porn" but rather due to the historical analogy.

After the Great Depression from 1929-1932, markets enjoyed a recovery in the mid-1930s and so too did the economy.

The Fed waited too long to raise rates as inflation materialized, however (sound familiar?), and then we got a sharp swoon lower off the head and shoulders top you should be able to discern from the Dow weekly chart, below. 

In effect, because The Fed waited too long it then had to raise rates into an economic cycle which had already run its natural course. Historically, this period is seen as one in which The Fed's actions exacerbated the downturn. 

While the 1970s, 2002, 2008, have all been noted by many (including myself) as being partially analogous to the current markets we know that history does not repeat but often rhymes. 

I suspect the 1937 analogy rhymes a bit better than most, however. 

So while many on Twitter and TV call for an imminent rally, I will continue to respect the bearish macro environment, hawkish Fed, and of course bearish technicals and seasonality until at least one or two of those things change. 

Also note the 1937 analogy was in the years leading up to a major World War with tons of serious geopolitical and nationalistic tensions building at the time..