Global Miners to Oil: Am I Lying?

The overall strength in global materials non-precious miners in recent weeks, such as BHP PKX RIO VALE, among others, stands in stark contrast and has been conveniently overlooked to the crude oil weakness. 

In essence, oil bears want to have their cake and eat it too--Claiming weak oil and an imminent deep economic recession while ignoring the action in the above miners. Indeed, something has got to give. 

Now, to clarify, both parties can be correct on varying timeframes. I happen to think that 2023 will bring more economic weakness than many think. However, that does not preclude a near-term run-up in commodities. 

In fact, ironically, another spike in commodities may very well prove to be the dreaded tipping point for the economy into next year. 

At any rate, the USO ETF for crude is finally showing some life at its prior September lows. Holding here, even if oil comes nowhere close to the prior June highs, may very well be sufficient to see oil socks, solars, coals, uraniums, and the like catch a bid into Christmas just as everyone begins to fear tomorrow's CPI and Wednesday's FOMC.