Take Your Fed Day Breakfast with a Grain of Salt

Ahead of the FOMC at 2pm EST today, followed by a Chair Powell presser, it is likely correct to take virtual all of the action across all markets with a grain of salt since we know how quickly the worm can turn on Fed Days (then again, one can argue in this modern monetary regime that they are all "Fed Days"). 

The consensus is that the Fed will raise by 50 bps today, with Powell both talking tough about inflation's pain but also leaving the door open to slow the pace of hikes into 2023. This is the usual Fed-speak which worked wonders last decade, even dating back to Greenspan and Bernanke.

However, I suspect as this new inflationary regime unfolds in the coming years it will not fare nearly as well, perhaps as soon as early next year.

In the meantime, I am still keeping close tabs on oil and commodities. It seems like a real plus that a risky, debt name like RIG (I am long for a swing) did not lose its 200-day moving average (daily chart, below) during oil's recent swoon. 

But just as with everything else, let us see where we are at the closing bell today and tomorrow morning.