Line it Up for the Real Start of the New Year

This is a concept we discussed with Members as far back as mid-December, and it is worth repeating: It can often take up to two weeks after the holidays for the market to truly regain that full squad feeling and have it reflected in volumes--Markets will be closed this Monday, January 16th in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 

While not a hard and fast rule, the recent low volume rally in many spots illustrates this, not to mention the retail-traders-gone-wild prequel ramping up trashy names like BBBY CVNA GME AMC and the like as though we were still in the QE/ZIRP/Stimmies era. 

But we are in a new regime now, which means these sorts of moves will be short-lived, at least if you agree with my line of thinking. 

Large banks are leaning bullish after earnings, namely C and JPM. That said, I do not view the banks as market leaders or even movers at this point. 

In reality, the coming onslaught of mega cap tech earnings in the coming weeks will likely be front and center. Mind you, I do not view "FAANG" names as being bull market leaders anyone, mostly because we are still in a bear market. But due to sheer market cap and liquidity, they will be critical in the weeks leading up to the next FOMC. 

Overall, the early year rally has served to flip sentiment decidedly much more bullish, with retail back in the pool gambling it up and many seasoned veterans calling for a new bull market. 

It feels lonely on my end sticking with my view of an ongoing bear market and risk being much lower.

But what's new? Speculation is not a popularity contest and trying to play the cool kids in high school game on social media is not my concern. 

No, instead, I am lining things up for the real start to the new year next week.