Low Winter Sun Staring at You, Jay Powell

The Fed Chair will be speaking around 12:40pm EST today. And while it may very well be a formality of a speech before an economic council in D.C. you may have noticed the rhetoric shift in recent days from Fed people in light of last Friday's hot jobs number. 

Stocks are mixed in front of his speech, with the likes of BBBY giving back a heavy chunk of yesterday's meme stock bonanza to the upside, with the near-bankrupt name basically doubling during the session. Typically, at the end of a rally, especially a bear market rally, seeing trashy names catch hot money retail bids while most of the rest of the tape is churning often marks the end of the rally. 

In addition, the retail space at-large is noticeably weak this morning as one of our Members noted. 

On the XRT sector ETF for retail monthly chart, below, you can see the early-February fade (arrow, long skinny shadow indicating the fade) off the 20-period monthly moving average (orange line), which is declining. 

If you do some historical backtesting of protracted, multi-quarter bear markets I think you will find that the 20-period monthly often marks the final stop for most rallies before the bear market resumes lower.