Tough Markets Don't Last; Tough Traders Do

In late-2008-early-2009 I can honestly say I expect the violent, random price swings we saw because we had already crashed in October 2008 and I thus expected tons of "aftershocks" from a broken market trying to eventually heal itself.

This first few months of 2023, however, feels much more like the lingering slush of liquidity from the QE/ZIRP/pandemic era competing against deteriorating parts of the market like banks, insurers, and a variety of headwinds. In effect, I would rate the degree of difficulty for the current market for swing traders to be as challenging as any I have traded. 

While bulls are awfully vocal like they were on the rally at session highs this morning I still think the narrow nature of the mega cap techs rallying (like $NFLX $NVDA $GOOG $META $AAPL $TSLA etc.) continue to mask a weakening tape below the surface. The small caps are threatening a multi-year breakdown as we speak below $170, for example. 

And do not sleep on insurance names in the KIE ETF deteriorating now, too. 

As a result, I went long DOG with Members, which is a straight-up BEAR ETF for the Dow, as a proxy play on my view that the monthly chart bearish inverted cup and handle pattern (updated below) which prove true. I am putting my money where my mouth is and I will live with the results. AAPL MSFT V are in the Dow and need to stumble, but TRV (insurance) and some banks are in there, too, and I think they can get the ball rolling downhill into the summer.