Every Chance to Buy

You would never know it from the "inflation is cooling" headlines about the macro data this week (heck, even Rick Santelli on CNBC was boasting about his call that inflation has peaked), but rates are higher again this morning and on track for a higher overall week. 

On the updated daily chart for TNX, which tracks rates on the 10-Year Note, the overall gist of the technical setup is still a failed breakdown in recent weeks. Should that bear trap play out, we should see a surprise spike in rates in the coming weeks and possibly months. 

To my eye, the consensus is clearly that rates have peaked alongside inflation, and that The Fed will sooner cut than keep hiking. But barring a massive crash in asset prices imminently, I still do not see The Fed cutting anytime soon. 

No, the more likely scenario from here is rates rising and The Fed forcing to keep tightening or at least not entertain cutting, compelling equities to finally face reality, which should not be a pretty sight. 

Again, the face that rates went up this week to me is the most telling feature of all markets I track, since there was every reason to spike them down hard given the data.