18Aug2:26 pmEST

Too Many Blokes Looking to Buy

You may have noticed even fairly hardcore bears expect a bounce right here, as the natural inclination after quarters of constant melt-ups and snapback rallies can certainly distort expectations for a more normalized market. 

However, my overall bearish view remains intact and I see no reason to become infatuated with possible very near-term bounces at this point in both stocks and bonds. 

Beyond that, as we segue into the end of summer festivities next week with both NVDA earnings and the Jackson Hole summer camp, er, Symposium, out in Wyoming, I expect a surprise to the downside. 

Specifically, it has been my contention that at least one of the mega cap tech monsters is due for an outsized, shocking move lower. And with most of them already reporting, NVDA next week makes for an interesting candidate to look for a heavy downside gap lower after the report. 

After all, of all the mega caps, NVDA is the most expensive (forward PE) for its size (over $1 trillion market cap) as it sports a long-term chart on par with the parabolas of South Sea Bubble, Dutch Tulip Mania, Mississippi Stock Bubble, etc.. 

The easiest and safest opinion to have right now is that this is a mere healthy consolidation and thus buyable pullback in equities. 

But ask yourself something over the weekend: Is the underlying structure of the market truly healthy? The backdrop of higher rates while China reports terrible economic numbers?

Will Powell truly be able to keep his magic streak alive?

Because you may not know this, but there was a time when Ben Bernanke was seen as the stock whisperer, too, when he could do no wrong and stocks when higher regardless of what he said.

And then one day that stopped for a good while in 2008 into early 2009. 

Consider Where the Real Pain... Weekend Overview and Analysi...


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