08Sep11:09 amEST

Both Statements Can Be True

On the one hand, the eighteen month "lag effect" from Powell's first rate hike (in March 2022) can finally kick in, and probably is as we speak according to various data, leading to tighter financial conditions for tapped out consumers and a long-in-the-tooth jobs market starting to crack. 

On the other hand, the near-term pain trade in both rates and oil (also the Dollar) could easily be higher yet, and in a violent manner at that. 

Those statements seem to be contradictory to a great many folks who are jumping too many steps ahead to a point where The Fed begins cutting rates due to a crisis and/or deep recession. 

But they are ignoring market history.

In the spring of 2008, for example, oil had its "pressure point" moment higher, near $150 per barrel, on the doorstep of one of the most deflationary events in modern American history.

And in the months leading up to the 1987 crash, rates spiked ferociously higher.  

When you take a step back, however, you realize that these "pressure point" moments in rates and oil (and, again, the Dollar, too) actually service to exacerbate the eventual selling, as they create so much turmoil in the financial plumbing of the entire system that something invariably "breaks."

Thus, it is not contradictory at all to have the view that rates, oil, and the Dollar has plenty of unfinished business higher and that we are also on the doorstep of some serious market/economic turmoil. 

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