05Feb11:26 amEST

We're Not Back Up Until This Happens

Of all the names composing the SMH, ETF for the semiconductors, the only names up more than 3% as I write this are ON and, of course, NVDA. 

Most of the rest of the ETF names are either red or up less than 1%. 

This is happening as the broad market sells off today, with the small caps and Dow clearly leading lower while the S&P and Nasdaq are off by about 0.67%. 

Simply put, as promising as this selloff may be to Nasdaq bears the reality is that it is not likely going anywhere unless and until we see the SMH, including NVDA, begin to meaningfully reverse lower. To state the obvious, that all starts with a red session, something which seems particularly elusive these days. 

Part of the reason for the selloff, overall, is that Fed Chair Powell did not indicate anything last night on 60 Minutes to counter his words last week at the FOMC presser that The Fed would probably not cut rates in March. Thus, rates are on the move higher this morning, and rate-sensitive sectors like the IYR ETF (commercial real estate) are under pressure again. 

Still, the chasing in NVDA has taken on a life of its own, and will no doubt be recorded in history as an epic mania relating to AI. Thus, I will be looking there for the ultimate sign a deeper broad market pullback is underway. 

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