Packed with Broken Heroes on a Last Chance Power Drive

While I am not crazy about performing complex technical analysis on an instruments like the VIX (daily chart, below) since it is several steps removed from equities as derivatives, it is noteworthy that the "Fear Index" is attempting to break a long, sideways congestion zone higher again today. 

The low-to-mid teens has certainly been a jam-packed highway for the VIX in recent months, as each pop since the pandemic crash has been soundly faded and, ultimately, led to a slow drip lower. 

Now the issue is whether the VIX is finally born to run, especially considering the prevailing view that volatility is indefinitely low. 

Also note the VIX is still in the mid-teens, which is barely even a blip in terms of actual fear--Getting above 20 is a bare minimum during most equity corrections, and the actual fear really does not come in until we get at least above 30, if not into the 40s and 50s, historically. 

But recent history has certainly skewed that belief, as the prolonged period of low vol has led to a cottage industry of volatility sellers and dispersion programs, even amongst the institutional crowd who normally had not dabbled in such matters. 

As a result, given the current bearish seasonal window I am looking for that VIX spike which ultimately brings about genuine fear again. My sense is we may build up to it, given the complacency, which means we creep into the 20s, even 30s, before a spike commences.

Regarding equities today, semis are selling in front of NVDA's earnings tomorrow, which is something this market has done in a while--Actually respect a looming risk event. Also ARM SMCI getting hit, as risk starts to unwind after a manic melt-up.