10Jul2:05 pmEST
Do They Even Remember How to Rally?
Uranium names are red hot today. However, I know many times over from recent quarters just how slippery this sector can be. While I am wildly bullish on uranium (and most commodities) looking out the next decade, I recognize that we have to see it to believe it in the here and now, insofar as these rallies holding and building on themselves.
Little Denison Mines, low priced but liquid, trading out of Canada, is the best chart I see right now in the uranium mining space. On the first daily chart, below, we can see a base breakout attempt (you can also argue for an inverse head and shoulders bullish bottom there, too). There is also CCJ (another strong chart) UEC UUUU URG.
But DNN probably has the best bang for the buck if the rally has legs.
And the second chart is a follow-up from earlier in the week. MNKD, a small bio, is threatening a major $5.50 area breakout. The stock has been dead money for about nine years now, and remains heavily shorted. A squeeze may be in order.
Overall, headed into tomorrow's CPI it is hard to argue the market has any real fear at all, what with the continued melt-up in semis and the Nasdaq, as well as the S&P.
I have been involved in markets for nearly twenty-five years now, including continually studying centuries of history in the market. What we are seeing right now certainly rhymes with some of the most extreme moves in terms of the largest stocks and senior indices. I recognize there are always new wrinkles each time ("Hey! The Mag7 are *great* companies!" or "Hey! Most stocks are flat or down so this is *not* a bubble!").
But ultimately stocks detach from the underlying fundamentals in a bubble. You can do the math for yourself to see just how much growth NVDA needs over the next ten years to match its valuation, for example.
In the meantime, if The Fed is preparing to cut amid this mess, I have to believe commodities have the green light to go bananas to the upside, a long overdue development.
Aftermath of a Memorial Day ... I Want My Deflationary Steak...