Oil Bulls Are Captured Cowboys These Days

We are stuck in this moment now where select commodities like the precious metals and uranium/nuclear names are soundly outperforming.

Meanwhile, oil is being held hostage by careful saber-rattling in the Middle East which never seems to fully escalate into a winner-take-all conflict. As a result, each time there is not an ugly escalation on both sides over the weekend, oil gets crushed as we are seeing today. 

On the first chart, below, of the USO ETF daily timeframe, we can plainly seen the last few weeks of higher lows breached by the harsh gap down. It may be merely more "noise" in the oil pits in what has been one, big, sloppy mess of a chart in lieu of a decisive breakdown. 

But we can say with confidence that precious metals (including palladium and platinum) well as nuclear/uranium are acting much better and in far better technical shape than oil and most oil stocks.

That said, I do indeed see tremendous values emerging in the oil space in the coming months and quarters for patient long-term investors--It's just that for traders the action is not there right now. 

Ultimately, oil bulls may need a 1973 Oil Embargo-type event to get oil out of this rut, which is not as much of a stretch as some may think. 

Elsewhere, rates continue to push higher even as stocks remain resilient. On the second daily chart for the TNX, rates on the 10-year look like they are headed to 45 (4.5%) with little in the way of resistance.